187 FXUS62 KTAE 311917 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 317 PM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... The cold front has pushed through all but the southeast Big Bend this Sunday afternoon and a line of showers and thunderstorms have developed along the leading edge from near Shell Point to around Perry at 19z. Meanwhile, a much drier airmass is filtering in behind the front on breezy northwest winds. Dew points have already dropped into the lower to mid 40s across southeast Georgia. Also, upstream radars show an area of post-frontal rain and showers along the Gulf coast from near New Orleans to the western Florida Panhandle moving eastward. Thus, rain chances will continue through daybreak with the best chance over the Florida and lower tier Georgia zones. Minimum temperatures will range from the lower 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. .SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... A stationary surface frontal zone across the Northern Gulf of Mexico will be in place at the start of the short term period. Aloft, a quick moving shortwave will overspread the area resulting in a fairly extensive area of rain along the surface front on Monday morning. As this feature is shown to move through the region quickly on Monday, rain chances will drop off fast after 18z Monday. The lull will be fairly short lived as model guidance is in good agreement about a stronger shortwave amplifying and moving across the Mid South on Monday evening. While there are differences in the intensity in the resultant surface low pressure area, most models show fairly high rain chances across the forecast area Monday night and into Tuesday morning. As a result, will increase PoPs across the eastern half of the area into the 80 to 90 percent range. Thereafter, clear conditions will arrive by Tuesday afternoon as high pressure settles over the area into Wednesday morning. Temperatures during the short term period will be on the cool side, especially on Monday. With the area being to the north of the surface boundary and extensive cloudiness, highs will struggle to get into the low 60s across the area on Monday. Tuesday, with some late day sunshine, will be warmer with highs generally in the mid to upper 60s. Overnight lows will be cooler than recent days, generally in the low to mid 40s. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]... The long term forecast is a little more uncertain than normal given the fairly fast mid level flow in place across the CONUS. Much of the sensible weather in our region will be tied to multiple mid level shortwaves moving through the flow during the period. Both timing and intensity differences abound by the latter half of the extended forecast. There is reasonable confidence that the first system on Friday will deliver rain across the region, and maybe a thunderstorm. But any severe threat would be extremely low. The next system, potentially late Saturday and into Monday is much more uncertain. The 31/12z Euro wants to leave a stationary boundary along the Gulf Coast on Saturday, which serves to generate scattered convection that afternoon, while the GFS keeps the region dry. Beyond Saturday, the next trough will be in the area late Sunday, with what could leave an unsettled pattern in place through Monday next week. After initially being below normal on Wednesday, temperatures through the remainder of the period will be above normal, even with the anticipated rain on Friday and late in the weekend. && .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Monday] Brief periods of IFR/MVFR cigs can be expected through the TAF cycle. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected. Periods of light to occasionally moderate rain will impact the terminals, especially ECP and TLH overnight and Monday. Winds will be gusty from the west to northwest through this evening swinging to the northeast or east Monday morning/afternoon. && .MARINE... Winds will increase to advisory levels this evening in the wake of a cold front just south of the marine area. By Monday afternoon these winds will diminish and conditions should remain below advisory levels through the remainder of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... An increasingly wet pattern is in store into early next week with relative humidity values and winds expected to remain below critical thresholds. Aside from low dispersions across portions of the Florida panhandle on Monday, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Rain through the next several days is only expected to average 1 to 1.5 inches across the forecast area, which should have little or no impact on area rivers. Thus, there are no flood concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 50 61 46 69 43 / 30 50 80 20 0 Panama City 51 62 50 68 51 / 30 40 60 10 0 Dothan 43 63 44 67 44 / 10 30 60 10 0 Albany 44 61 45 66 43 / 10 30 70 20 0 Valdosta 52 57 46 65 43 / 30 60 80 30 0 Cross City 54 61 51 69 45 / 40 70 80 40 0 Apalachicola 52 61 51 68 51 / 40 60 70 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Monday for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...Barry SHORT TERM...Godsey LONG TERM...Godsey AVIATION...Barry MARINE...Godsey FIRE WEATHER...Franck HYDROLOGY...Godsey