435 FXUS64 KMRX 301853 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 253 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)...A strong cold front will swing through tonight as a mid/upper level trough moves into our area. There will be widespread showers ahead of and near the front, and although convective energy will be waning as it moves into our area some thunderstorms can be expected as well. Wind shear will be significant, but with the limited convective energy it still appears best chance for any strong to severe storms will be western portions of the area especially along and near the plateau. Will mention this threat in the HWO. The precipitation will not linger long, and should move out of western portions of the area later tonight and eastern portions early Sunday. Strong cold advection may bring temps down quickly enough for the rain showers to end as a few snow flakes over the higher mountain peaks, but no significant accumulation is expected even over the highest elevations. Winds will be gusty from the southwest ahead of the front, then transitioning to the northwest/north behind the front. Clouds will decrease Sunday giving way to a sunny/mostly sunny sky. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)...Other than the Monday morning freeze, a quiet pattern greets us as the extended period opens. The formerly-known-as Tuesday event will track too far south to impact us with precip, so it has been removed. This means that midweek ridging will allow us to reach the 70s in parts of the Valley from Wednesday through Saturday. But the southerly winds that will prompt that warm-up will also draw up Gulf moisture ahead of the next worthwhile shortwave trough that will roll past the MS Valley Thursday and bring us showery weather from late Thursday through Friday night. There will be no post-frontal cool down, however, as the next trough moves into the southern plains Saturday, quickly ridging us once again. Precip from this second event will probably hold off until next Sunday at least. Looking ahead, the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks are showing decent signals for an expectation of warmer than average temperatures.(Sunday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 57 33 58 / 90 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 53 29 55 / 90 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 44 55 29 56 / 90 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 52 24 53 / 90 20 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger- Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon- Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-NW Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe- Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN- West Polk. VA...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for Lee- Scott-Washington. && $$