023 
FXUS65 KFGZ 301717
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1017 AM MST Sat Mar 30 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Fair, cool, and breezy conditions are expected over
the weekend with only a slight chance for showers across far
eastern Arizona. Temperatures will mostly be below normal this
weekend, with some warming forecast next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Only minor changes to the forecast with this morning's
update. We continued N-E winds along the rim somewhat later into
this afternoon as the going forecast had winds already decreasing
and winds of ~12g20kt are persisting along and downwind of high 
terrain features.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /321 AM MST/...Cool conditions with northerly
flow is expected today behind a cold front that moved through the
area yesterday. Some gusty winds will be possible mainly along
downslope areas south of higher terrain, such as the Mogollon Rim.

By Sunday some showers will be possible as a weak disturbance
moves south out of Utah and across eastern Arizona. Precipitation
amounts will be light with most of the activity forecast over the
higher terrain along the Arizona and New Mexico border, with most
of the precipitation developing in New Mexico.

Going into the next work week a building ridge of high pressure
will allow for dry, breezy, and warming conditions Monday and
most of Tuesday before the next shortwave trough causes another
cold front with associated showers along the Arizona Utah border,
with the heavier precipitation remaining north of Arizona on
Wednesday.

Further into the extended, active westerly flow will bring breezy
and mild conditions through the rest of the week. Expect mostly
dry conditions, with a slight chance of showers Saturday near the
Utah border.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions through the 
24 hour period. Sfc winds N-E5-15kts, expect 10-20kts along and just 
SW-W of higher terrain features. Aviation discussion not updated 
for TAF amendments. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather and north through east winds can be 
expected today. Sunday, a passing disturbance will produce stronger 
northeast winds and a chance for showers across Navajo and Apache 
Counties.

.Monday through Wednesday...A mild and breezy weather pattern is 
forecasted to continue. There will be a chance for light showers 
Tuesday and Wednesday when another weather disturbance passes over 
northern Arizona.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...AT/Suk
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson/MAS


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff