250 FXUS65 KSLC 301008 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 408 AM MDT Sat Mar 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS...A weak weather disturbance will develop over southeast Utah tonight, then moves slowly southeast out of the state Sunday. High pressure aloft will settle over the Great Basin early in the week, followed by a new weather disturbance midweek. && .SHORT TERM (Until 00z Wednesday)...A poorly defined shortwave rotating southwest through northern Utah has spawned isolated convection overnight. The bulk of this convection has formed over the GSL utilizing the low-level instability over the warmer lake. Convection will expand in areal coverage across the higher terrain of mainly central/southern Utah and the adjacent western valleys during the day as the shortwave moves south through western Utah and daytime heating increases the relatively shallow instability. The various global model are developing an upper low out a vorticity lobe moving through southern Utah late this afternoon and evening. This upper low will move slowly through the four corners region Sunday, and will likely generate enough lift within the residual moisture to produce some light showers over the southeast quadrant of Utah. This low will exit to the southeast as high pressure aloft moves into the Great Basin from the west late in the day. Seasonally mild temperatures and dry conditions will exist to begin the week as the upper ridge settle over the state. The next mid-latitude disturbance will reach the western Great Basin late Tuesday. Could see some light precip work into northwest Utah Tuesday afternoon as moisture advects into the region ahead of the trough with lift supplied by any dynamic feature ejecting in ahead of the main system at peak heating Tuesday afternoon. .LONG TERM (After 00Z Wednesday)...Deterministic runs of GFS and ECMWF continue to indicate a storm system moving across Great Basin Tuesday night and Wednesday. Global ensembles (EPS and GEFS) are rather similar, with EPS suggesting just a slightly more progressive system. Given strong agreement in deterministic and ensemble solutions, forecast confidence is high, so will continue with robust precipitation probabilities, especially across northern and central portions of forecast area. This storm system is certainly warmer than Thursday night and Friday system, with 700MB temperatures likely -3 to -5C, so roughly 3 to 5C warmer. Thus, expect snow levels to get no lower than 6,500 during event. Ridging aloft should promote generally dry conditions on Thursday, so have lowered precipitation chances. A weak system will move through ridge Thursday night and Friday, supporting some precipitation potential. Attention turns to a potentially more vigorous trough for late next week, with global ensemble solutions both indicating another progressive trough move through region. && .AVIATION...While VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KSLC through the valid TAF period, will see ceilings below 7,000 FT AGL through 12Z, with some possibility through 15Z. Given northerly flow aloft, any lake effect snow showers should remain well to the west of SLC. Expect a light southeast drainage wind to shift to the northwest around 18Z. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CONGER LONG TERM/AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php