144 FXUS64 KFWD 292349 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 649 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019 .AVIATION... /00z TAFs/ Widespread cigs around 3 kft will prevail at the TAF sites through this evening and into the overnight hours. There may be a brief scattering of cigs around midnight before an additional wave of moisture arrives closer to 3-5 AM. MVFR should prevail during the pre-dawn hours ahead of an approaching surface cold front, which will move into the DFW Metroplex around daybreak and through Waco a few hours later. At this time, a fairly thin band of showers is expected to accompany the front as it moves southeastward with a couple lingering showers behind it. Thunder is not expected with this activity due to a strong capping inversion which should suppress deep convection. Following the frontal passage, gusty NNW winds will prevail into the day Saturday. Gusts as high as 35kts will be possible, especially during the afternoon. MVFR conditions will improve rapidly to VFR by midday, and VFR will prevail through the remainder of the period. By Saturday evening, wind speeds should fall below 15 kts. -Stalley && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 300 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019/ /Through Tonight/ A narrow fetch of 850-mb moisture, feeding a cyclone in the Central Plains, has maintained a blanket of low clouds along and west of the I-35 corridor. Underneath it, many locations remained in the 60s well into the afternoon, enhancing the inhibition that should keep the area free of deep convection. To the east of this plume, partial sunshine has pushed temperatures into the mid 70s. But even though dew points near 60F have yielded MLCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg, the downglide in the wake of this morning's impulse and the persistent cap will keep the flat CU trapped within the boundary layer. To the west, a half-hearted dryline will remain well west of the channel of rich moisture. Instead, our focus will be on an approaching cold front, whose forward motion will be amplified by a shortwave emerging from the Rockies. A nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer will reduce the instability available to updrafts in vicinity of the front, but some elevated convective elements may be ongoing across Oklahoma as the front approaches the Red River during the early morning hours Saturday. Mechanical lifting alone may be sufficient for surface parcels to play a role, but the persistent cap should limit the frequency and duration of such updrafts. Steep lapse rates aloft will promote thunder and even some small hail, but without prolonged access to the boundary layer moisture, strong storms are unlikely. The southwestern limit of the linear complex along the frontal boundary will likely be within our CWA, potentially bringing rain the the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex around daybreak. 25 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 300 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019/ /Saturday through Friday/ A strong cold front will be sweeping through North Texas during the early morning hours on Saturday accompanied by a thin line of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. The best moisture and forcing associated with a fast moving shortwave moving through the Southern Plains will be across our northern and northeastern counties, so we'll keep the highest PoPs confined to the front in these areas through midday. Lapse rates will be steep, particularly across our northeast counties, although a lingering cap should keep surface based convection in check. The strongest elevated storms could produce some hail during the morning hours. Brisk northerly winds will prevail behind the front with temperatures falling into the 50s under mostly cloudy skies. Saturday night will be cold with most areas falling into the 30s. While we're not expecting to see freezing temperatures, any early season plants or vegetation sensitive to the cold may need to be covered. Weak mid level ridging will overspread North Texas on Sunday, although it will be cool and there could be some mid/high clouds start to spread into the region. Highs will top out in the upper 50s areawide. A fast moving disturbance will swing through North Texas on Monday. Strong height falls will overspread the region early in the day, although low level moisture return will be minimal. Extensive mid cloud cover will be present and some high based showers may develop during the morning hours. At this time, we're not expecting a substantial coverage of precipitation and any amounts that occur should be light. Given the added cloud cover and rain chances, Monday will also be cool with highs in the 50s areawide. A progressive upper pattern will remain across the CONUS through the end of next week with strong height rises building through the central U.S. into Tuesday. This ridging will allow temperatures to climb back into the 70s by Tuesday. Strong southerly flow will be in place across the Plains mid week allowing moisture to stream northward into the region while temperatures continue to climb. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 80s by Thursday. There is a little uncertainty regarding the strength/timing of another disturbance moving through the Plains late in the week, so we'll maintain the 20% PoPs Thursday and Friday given the increase in moisture. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 57 39 57 40 / 30 40 0 0 20 Waco 61 62 41 57 38 / 10 40 5 5 20 Paris 55 60 37 56 36 / 40 70 0 0 10 Denton 52 54 37 56 35 / 40 30 0 0 20 McKinney 54 58 37 56 36 / 40 50 0 0 20 Dallas 55 59 39 57 40 / 30 40 0 0 20 Terrell 56 62 39 57 37 / 30 60 5 0 20 Corsicana 61 64 40 56 39 / 20 50 5 0 20 Temple 62 65 42 57 38 / 10 20 10 5 20 Mineral Wells 52 55 35 56 36 / 30 10 0 0 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 26/92