148 
FXUS63 KFGF 292329
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
629 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Adjustments made to account for current timing/coverage/ptype of
showers moving across region. Generally on track, but CAA is
resulting in a faster change over up north. I also added
sprinkle/flurry mention into the evening behind main band. Expect
precip to end with similar timing (by mid evening south). Also
tweaked timing of winds behind cold front a little more to reflect
current trends (a little slower in our south/stronger in our
north). Overall, things are on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Active NW flow pattern aloft continues with another system this 
afternoon. A cold front will bring a band of rain and or snow 
showers to the area this afternoon into the evening with 
accumulations minimal. In its wake a 2 to 3 hour period of gusty 
north winds are expected with efficient mixing and momentum 
transfer from around 900mb with 30kts. Cold advection will help 
skies clear as 925mb temps fall to around -10C on the NW quadrant 
on sfc high pressure sliding to the SW of the FA. As a result 
morning temps will be in the teens to low 20s. Will keep a cold 
blyr tomorrow with highs struggling into the low 30s slowing any 
progress on the snowmelt front for a day. Temps Saturday night 
will again be in the teens and 20s with a low chance of light snow
towards Sunday morning in NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Models still diverging as to placement of surface features in the 
latter part of the extended period. Upper pattern starts in 
northwest flow aloft as the upper level ridge is in place over the 
High Plains. A wave is progged to cross the area early Sunday...with 
a chance for light precipitation. Surface high pressure follows the 
system for early Monday ahead of the next wave forecast to cross 
early Tuesday.

For Tuesday...another wave crosses the area bringing a chance for 
light precipitation. Behind the wave...temperatures turn a bit 
cooler with a reinforcing shot of Canadian air. The cool high 
pressure will settle over the area and remain through early 
Thursday. By Thursday night...the surface high pressure retreats 
ahead of return flow...and warmer temperatures...to end the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Cold front actively pushing south across eastern ND and northwest
MN, with light rain/snow showers and increasing north winds 
(gusts 25-36kt range). MVFR conditions associated with this 
activity overspreading the region should transition south and 
improve to VFR as drier air moves in from the north this evening.
Winds will also slowly decrease through the evening, though 
sustained wind may remain in the 12-17kt range overnight before 
dropping below 12kt Saturday morning. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...DJR