064 FXUS63 KOAX 292324 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 624 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019 At 4 PM, rain and snow activity was generally showing a decreasing trend over the region as a weak impulse shifted eastward. Precipitation amounts today generally ranged from 0.10 to 0.30 inches, with a trace to half and inch of snow. Given temperatures in the low/mid 30s and warmer ground temperatures snow hasn't been sticking around long. Dry northeast flow and CAA at the surface kept temperatures cooler than forecast today, with many locations struggling to get out of the low to mid 30s. Chances for rain and snow will stick with us into the overnight period as the core of the shortwave trough pulls east out of the central Rockies. Given the continued CAA, drier northeast flow at the surface and the orientation of the shortwave trough, it looks like the best chances for additional rain/snow will be over southeast Nebraska this evening/overnight. Additional rain/snow amounts should be light, with less that 0.20 inches of precipitation and only a trace of snow possible. By 6 AM Saturday, dry conditions should be the norm across the region. Breezy winds Saturday morning and afternoon (gusts 20-30 mph) as a surface high settles in over the region. This will keep temperatures cool, and hold afternoon highs in the low to mid 40s. Cloud cover should decrease through the day. For Sunday, the core of the surface high will shift to the southeast, resulting in westerly to southwesterly downsloping flow below 850 mb. This will combine with ample sunshine to produce a nice warm up Sunday (afternoon highs in the 50s). Increasing mid and upper level clouds area expected Monday as a weak upper level shortwave moves overhead. Despite the increasing cloud cover, afternoon highs should be near average readings (mid 50s). Light shower activity is possible Monday evening/overnight, as the mid/low levels saturate. Confidence in shower activity during this period has increased slightly with better model alignment today. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019 A warming trend is possible next Tuesday and Wednesday as transient ridging builds and southerly flow increases ahead of a stronger shortwave over the West. Rain/Thunderstorms are then possible Wednesday into Thursday as the shortwave trough propagates into the Plains. Confidence in occurrence of a warming trend and precipitation during the period is fairly high. Drier and a little cooler Friday as the shortwave pulls east. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019 Scattered showers will continue all all TAF sites, but ending by 04z at KOFK, and 08-10z at KOMA/LNK. Mostly rain, but could mix with snow, but not really expecting significant accumulation other than a tenth or two of an inch, and that may even melt. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM...Albright AVIATION...DeWald