079 
FXUS66 KMFR 291011
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
311 AM PDT Fri Mar 29 2019

.DISCUSSION...A slow-moving east-west oriented upper trough is
wrapping northward across the region. The center of the low at 500
mb is off Coos Bay just inside 130W. Energy wrapping northward 
along the south coast today will allow for ample precipitation 
focusing largely on Curry County early, but moving inland 
across Coos, western Douglas, and Josephine through the morning. 
a few thunderstorms are possible in this area. Curry County has 
received on the order of .25 to .50" of rain over the past 6 hours.

As we move into afternoon, the trough axis remains draped 
across southwest Oregon lifting slowly north. Some surface heating
combined with an unstable atmosphere and the upper forcing will 
provide likely showers with 20-30 percent chances for 
thunderstorms over much of the area, but the higher probabilities 
for measurable rain will be over the Cascades and westward. 
Showers taper quickly this evening with dry weather to follow 
Saturday. Highs Saturday will be near normal over the east side 
but should run 4-8 degrees above normal over the west.

Looks like a fairly good consensus on bringing in another small
energetic low center toward the coast Sunday. Model forecasts have
trended slower with the arrival of the precipitation preceding
this low and have kept much of the area dry now. Forecast has been
updated with NBM pops here which look good in representing this 
idea. Should wind up being a similar day to Saturday but with more
cloud cover.

Sunday night and Monday the next low should move in with pretty 
high chances for showers most areas. This threat looks to continue
through Tuesday as the low phases with another low to the north, 
slowing the eastward progression. This low doesn't appear to bring
quite as much instability as it moves over the region Tuesday and
mos thunder pops look lower. No thunderstorms are in the forecast
there for now but this could change.

The pattern from mid to late week remains unsettled with some 
threat for shower activity continuing most areas. Seasonal would 
be a good description. Stavish

&&

.AVIATION...For the 29/06Z TAFS...Conditions will be mainly VFR 
areawide with MVFR in showers through the TAF period. An isolated 
thunderstorm or two will be possible during the afternoon, mainly 
along and east of the Cascades, with gusty winds and small hail 
possible in stronger showers and thunderstorms. Freezing levels will 
hover around 4000 feet throughout the TAF period. Schaaf/Sargeant

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Thursday 28 March 2019...The low 
pressure center responsible for the ongoing south winds will 
weaken as it slowly meanders its way to the east, finally pushing 
onshore by tonight.

High pressure will then build into the region, with conditions 
remaining relatively calm through the weekend and into early next 
week. A moderately strong northwest swell will approach the coastal 
waters on Monday but seas are expected to remain just under 10 feet. 
Sargeant

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early 
     this morning for PZZ350-356. 
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for 
     PZZ350-356-370-376. 

$$