013 FXUS61 KBGM 290148 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 948 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will drop south into the area late tonight, and stall out in our vicinity through Friday evening. Showers are likely along this front especially late tonight through Friday morning. The boundary will lift back north late Friday night into Saturday with warm temperatures expected. This front will then move back through as a cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning with more showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 930 pm update... Update to mostly lower the pops as one batch of light showers and sprinkles heads east out of the southeast zones, and another continues across the far north. The rest of the area mainly dry and cloudy. More showers will come in after 2 am then continue most of the morning across the twin tiers as forecasted. With the clouds and a lack of rain temperatures have stayed up and dewpoints have stayed down. Updated hourly grids for this. The rest of the forecast looks fine the rest of tonight and Friday. previous discussion... A weak mid level wave and surface trough is producing some radar returns this afternoon across the western/central forecast area but due to 30 degree dew point depressions most of this is virga. Will cover this activity through early evening with slight chance POPs. Overnight, a more significant surface trough will drop south through the area with showers expected along this feature. Late tonight through Friday morning the boundary will stall over the twin tiers. Mid level short waves in westerly flow along with a surface wave riding along the boundary will bring a period of widespread showers over the northern tier of Pennsylvania and southern tier of New York including the western Catskills. By afternoon this forcing will lift east of the region with the activity expected to become scattered once again. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s while highs on Friday will range from 45 to 50 across central New York and in the 50s in northeast Pennsylvania. Friday night...The above mentioned stalled boundary will gradually lift back north as a warm front. Models continue to show fairly limited activity along this boundary but as it lifts into the northern forecast area it may become more active so will continue with likely POPs here and chance elsewhere. Temperatures will be non-diurnal with warming occurring after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cold front hangs over western NY on Saturday as a wave moves NE along it. Forecast area will be well into the warm sector with showers likely, especially over the Finger Lakes and into the Mohawk Valley while NEPA remains mostly dry. Wave passes late in the day and the front begins to move to the south and east as upper trof deepens pushes east. Showers in the evening will mix with snow after midnight as the colder air moves in. System develops into more of an Anafront and snow back in the cold air could give a light accumulation Sunday morning. Northerly flow of cold air will bring a few rain and snow showers on Sunday with temperatures mainly in the 30s and lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Generally a dry period as a large high pressure builds into the area. A few snow showers will start off the period Sunday night in the continued northerly flow off Lake Ontario. These should end early Monday leaving a cold and breezy day. High pressure is expected to then build in and keep the weather dry into midweek. Only other weather feature is a deep low that is expected to develop on Wednesday off the mid Atlantic coast. Current model consensus is to keep the low and associated precipitation south and east of the forecast area, but later model runs will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A boundary will drop south into the area overnight with showers expected along the front. As this feature lowers into the southern tier a surface wave will move along the front resulting in more rain and lower conditions. Mid/high level clouds with thicken this evening, but most terminals are forecast to remain VFR through 29/06-09z. Then, right around or just after 09-12z Friday conditions look to rapidly deteriorate as a wave of low pressure moves along the boundary spreading steady rain into the area. As the rain begins conditions drop to MVFR, then fuel alternate between 12-15z Friday north (RME, SYR)...conditions then improve back to VFR after about 18z for these two terminals. For the remainder of the terminals expect fuel alternate to IFR conditions beginning between 12-15z Friday and lasting much of the day. Some minor improvement is possible toward 21z or later. Highest confidence for IFR restriction is at KITH and KBGM between about 12-19z Friday where a light W-NW flow will upslope into the terrain, and this will also be where the steadiest rain falls through the day. Southwest winds decreasing this evening to 10 knots then becoming light and variable late tonight. During the day Friday winds remain light, less than 5 kts. Trending from N-NW up toward SYR/RME/ITH to west for ELM/BGM and SW for AVP. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday night...Intermittent mostly MVFR restrictions as chances of showers occur along a stalled frontal boundary wobbling in our vicinity. Sunday through early Sunday night...Restrictions in rain showers, perhaps mixing with snow showers before ending. Late Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Initial relative humidity recovery to 45-70 percent by dawn, will dip back down to 30-45 percent through midday before increasing clouds and moisture halts that. Southerly winds will also increase, reaching sustained 10-15 mph with higher gusts. So there will be a sensitive window of time today in terms of somewhat low humidity and increased winds, before showers arrive late today through Friday. Indeed a few brush fires have already occurred in the last couple of days as fine dead fuels have dried out, which is typical for any dry period this time of year. Be sure to heed any local or state burn bans currently in effect. Another potential period of warming and drying may occur early- to-mid next week. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...MJM/RRM FIRE WEATHER...