739 FXUS61 KBTV 281842 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 242 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be warm albeit gusty with increasing clouds and showers as a weak cold front tracks south across the North Country. The front stalls out overnight and through Friday before lifting back through as a warm front Saturday. Expect widespread rainfall over the weekend with warm above normal temperatures through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 233 PM EDT Thursday...Warm air advection aloft should continue to push in across the North Country this afternoon and we'll stop mixing some of the stronger gusts to the surface. Guidance is a bit all over the place with how quickly an inversion sets up but the general idea is sometime in the next 2-3 hours we'll see lapse rates weaken and the gusts erode. A line of rain showers stretching from western NY through the Adirondacks will drop south along a boundary through the afternoon and will eventually scatter out during the evening hours as the front stalls out south of the North Country overnight. Lows this evening will cool but with warm air pushing in aloft and near 100% cloud cover we wont fall very low. Expect lows this evening to only drop into the 30s and perhaps across portions of western Rutland and or western Addison counties maybe not even below 40. The surface front remains stalled out over far southern Vermont into Massachusetts Friday morning and I'd expect most of the area should be fairly dry with temps warming into the mid 40s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. The stalled front joins with another system Friday night and will end up lifting steady rain back into the North Country Friday night as a warm front. Some areas along the international border may see some snow initially but everything should transition to all rain early Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 409 AM EDT Thursday...No big changes to the forecast made heading into the weekend as things remain on track for an unsettled period of wet weather. A surface frontal boundary stalled south of the region Friday afternoon will shift back north as a warm front Friday night into Saturday before an upper trough digging through the Great Lakes Saturday night slowly moves the front eastward through the forecast area on Sunday. During the boundary's 2-day residence time over the forecast area, several waves of low pressure will ride northeast along the boundary bringing periods of light rain with expected QPF ranging from around 0.50" southeast to 1.25" northwest. This combined with several days above freezing will certainly cause some ice movement on area waterways with river level rises likely. However, while overnight lows will be above normal in the 30s/40s, model trends over the past few days have been towards only slightly above normal highs in the 40s/50s Saturday and 30s/40s Sunday. This would indicate slower runoff from snowmelt and less potential for flooding impacts. In fact, the latest MMEFS guidance for the mainstem rivers only shows potential for action stage levels. Still bears monitoring, but trends are our friend for flood potential. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 409 AM EDT Thursday...Aforementioned cold front front finally exits the region to the east Sunday night with strong cold air advection post frontal passage transitioning any linger precipitation over to snow, but high pressure is quick to build into the region with dry conditions developing by Monday morning. High pressure then dominates over the North Country through the remainder of the period centering over the Northeast Tuesday and exiting offshore Wednesday. Seasonal temperatures are expected through Monday night with lows in the teens and 20s and highs in the 30s, but as the high moves offshore and southerly return flow develops, we'll see a nice warming trend going into mid-week with highs back into the 40s and lows in the 20s/30s under partly cloudy skies. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions initially with some brief potential for MVFR in scattered showers a line of rain tracks through the Adirondacks currently. Ceilings will begin to lower to MVFR around 06z this evening behind a cold front. The rain threat should come to an by 12z tomorrow morning with the lone exception behind some VCSH continuing around through Friday morning at RUT. South to southwest winds will continue around 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts at BTV/MSS through around 21z and then we'll see the winds slowly start to weaken overnight. Outlook... Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with IFR possible. Definite RA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR and IFR. Definite RA, Likely SN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Deal