544 FXUS62 KFFC 281746 AAA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED for Aviation National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 140 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2019 .UPDATE... No changes to the forecast. 41 .Previous... SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/... Dry airmass in place due to high pressure at the surface and aloft. The upper ridge moves off through Friday allowing for high level moisture to increase and the surface ridge moves east and south allowing for some lower level moisture increase. Not enough moisture is expected for any rain chances so this period will continue to be dry. Forecast high temperatures are running within 3 degrees of normal across the area today and near to about 5 degrees above normal on Friday. Forecast low temperatures are running within around 5 degrees of normal for tonight. Overall confidence is high. BDL LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/... Upper level WSW flow will be in place over the southeastern CONUS to begin the period, with a gradual moisture return ongoing across the forecast area. At the surface, surface high pressure will be moving eastward, setting up southerly low-level flow which will further contribute to increasing moisture. Cloud cover and relative humidity will be on the rise in the early parts of the weekend. Meanwhile, the next system will approach the area as an upper-level longwave trough drops southeastward from the Midwest into the Tennessee Valley on Saturday night. At the surface, a cold front will stretch into the the Mississippi Valley by late Saturday night and push eastward into Georgia during the day Sunday. Model guidance is in good agreement regarding the handling of the frontal passage and the timing of the associated precipitation, with the boundary entering northwest Georgia early Sunday morning, then pushing southeastward before exiting the area late Sunday night. Guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the total rainfall amounts associated with this system, with the agreement being that this will be a relatively dry system. Rainfall amounts are anticipated to be about a half of an inch or less, mainly focused across the far northern tier. Enough instability is expected to be present with this system to warrant a mention of a slight chance of thunder, with the highest likelihood during the afternoon hours across central Georgia. Weak low-level shear and lapse rates as the front crosses the area indicate that the threat for organized severe thunderstorms will be low. Will continue to monitor severe potential as guidance continues to get a better handle on things. After the trough moves off to the east, the upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS becomes less amplified and more progressive. Weak high pressure is expected to briefly build over the area on Monday. Models then become divergent on the handling of a shortwave behind the cold front in the early parts of next week. The latest ECMWF develops the wave further to the west than the GFS, spreading widespread precipitation throughout the forecast area throughout the day on Tuesday. In contrast, the latest GFS brings some precipitation associated with this wave to only the southern half of the forecast area Monday night, then extends further northward on Tuesday only after it has moved eastward out of Georgia. To account for the lingering uncertainty, included only low-end chance PoPs across central Georgia and mostly slight chance PoPs further north on Monday night into Tuesday. King && FIRE WEATHER... Min humidities are running about 17 to 30 percent across the area this afternoon with some areas getting 3 to 5 hours duration at 25 percent or less. Fuels dried inconsistently yesterday so no statement for high fire danger at this time. Most winds are expected to be around 5 mph. Some moisture increases for Friday with Min humidities of 25-40 percent expected with winds less than 10 mph. BDL && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... VFR conditions continuing. Surface winds east to southeast less than 10 kts becoming calm or light and variable by 00z. Winds southwest 8 to 10kts after 14z Friday. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence for all elements. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 68 41 73 52 / 0 0 0 5 Atlanta 67 45 72 54 / 0 0 0 5 Blairsville 64 39 68 48 / 0 0 5 5 Cartersville 68 43 72 52 / 0 0 5 5 Columbus 71 45 76 54 / 0 0 0 5 Gainesville 65 42 70 52 / 0 0 0 5 Macon 69 43 75 51 / 0 0 0 5 Rome 68 44 72 52 / 0 0 5 5 Peachtree City 69 44 74 51 / 0 0 0 5 Vidalia 73 46 78 55 / 0 0 0 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....King AVIATION...41