000 FXUS65 KVEF 280926 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 225 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2019 .SYNOPSIS...A progressive weather pattern will bring weak weather systems across the area through next week. They systems will provide periods of gusty winds, small chances for showers mainly across the northern mountains and temperatures that are seasonal or warmer. && .DISCUSSION...Southwest flow aloft over the area today with a weak disturbance passing to the north. A few showers will be possible in the Sierra and mountains of southcentral Nevada. Winds are forecast to increase across the deserts this afternoon with the strongest winds over western San Bernardino County. Looking for winds in this area gusting between 30 and 40 mph which are marginal for a wind advisory so will not issue any headlines at this time. The Sierra crest and adjacent eastern slopes could see gusts to 50 mph which again, are sub advisory level. Generally, breezy to locally windy in other desert regions of San Bernardino, Clark and Mohave counties with lighter winds over areas to the north including the rest of Inyo, central Nye and Lincoln counties. A cold front is forecast to move south through the Southern Great Basin Thursday night which acts to enhance westerly winds across the Mojave Desert. Other than localized gusts over 40 mph, the majority of gusts are expected to be less than 40 mph. One area to watch is the Morongo Basin later this evening as winds turn northwest. HiRes models show the wind enhancement beginning after 10 pm and continuing for with gusts over 40 mph forecast. Although, there appears to be good model agreement with this and a wind advisory could be justified, other parts of the county may need to be included as well but I have less confidence in this and will hold off on issuing anything. Friday looks like a day of north breezes but nothing significant. Gusty conditions along the Colorado River Valley all weekend with winds advisory level winds possible...especially Sunday. Shortwave ridging advances across the area Monday with an Eastern Pacific approaching from the west. This system does not look too impressive however expect it to bring more wind and even some shower activity over the Sierra and possibly, the southcentral Nevada mountains. With the transition through the spring season and rapidly increasing normal temperatures, these weak weather disturbances moving in from the Pacific act to keep temperatures in check and provide little beneficial rainfall for our area. Temperatures through the weekend are expected to be slightly above normal with warmer conditions setting in next week. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty south to southwest winds will lose their gusts tonight, and likely wander back to a southeast direction again. Expect southwest gusts to develop on Thursday, but clouds may also delay the arrival of the southwest winds much like today. The stronger winds, especially just above the surface will result in clear air turbulence through much of the TAF period. Low-level wind shear looks to become an issue tonight into Thursday morning, with surface winds calming down and favoring south to southeast, while winds just above the surface increase out of the west. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Stronger southwest flow over the region will produce the strongest west to southwest along and north of a KDAG to KLAS line. Lesser southerly winds expected in the Colorado River Valley, and west or northwesterly winds in the Owens Valley. VFR conditions will prevail, with another batch of high clouds for Thursday. Clear air turbulence remains a hazard for most of the area through the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Salmen AVIATION...Steele For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter