588 FXUS64 KBRO 271739 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2019 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Surface high pressure has edged into the Eastern portions of Deep South Texas with sufficient deep layer dry air to keep the coast and areas east of I-69C in VFR conditions. Moisture returning on the western periphery of the ridge is being directed over KMFE and areas to the west of I-69C with MVFR ceilings. Anticipating the dry to push a bit more to the west allowing for the ceiling at KMFE to temporarily break up or clear. Moisture return continues tonight with a more established southeast flow developing tonight which might bring in some MVFR stratus overnight with most favorable location at KMFE and along the I-69C corridor. Light winds and mostly clear skies near the coast may allow for some patchy fog with vsby in the MVFR category. Light to moderate east to southeast winds tonight become gusty Thursday with gusts up to 20 knots in the late morning and 25kts Thu PM. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 842 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2019/ DISCUSSION...Just a couple of minor adjustments to sky cover and temperatures but still a tranquil fine day across the RGV. Drier air worked its way inland with the overnight widespread mid deck breaking up. Even through latest satellite is showing clouds rapidly building south of the border, likely along yesterday's cold front, updated forecast calls for a partly cloudy day especially over the eastern half of the CWA and the coastal region. With the increased expected sunshine bumped highs a few degrees...we will see if this pans out. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2019/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...The only change to the previous issuance of TAFs was to adjust BKN010 to BKN080 for initial conditions at MFE. Overall, VFR continues to be expected through the next 24 hours with winds becoming breezy for the daylight hours and light for the overnight period. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2019/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Harlingen, specifically Valley International Airport, was the big winner in the precipitation game on Tuesday as a record-breaking 1.02 inches of rain was recorded. This was due to the slow creep of a weak cold front through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, which resulted in a series of heavy showers that trained over the airport and the city as a whole for several hours. With the loss of the heating of the day and the cold front now over the northern portion of the neighboring State of Tamaulipas in Mexico, KBRO Doppler radar is quiet. The current period of dry weather is anticipated to persist through the short term portion of the forecast as 500 mb high pressure building north and east out of Mexico becomes and remains the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA. Decreasing cloudiness and a persistent onshore flow will assist in the climbing of temperatures to near normal levels through the 36 hour forecast period. LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): Going into the weekend, upper level flow will generally be zonal or slightly northwesterly across the region. At the surface, a low level return flow will set up in response to the high pressure centered across northern Florida. Much of Friday through Saturday night will be dry across the region. Only thing is breezy conditions expected Friday as low level flow continues to increase ahead of our next cold frontal boundary. The cold front will slide through the region late Saturday and early Sunday. Rain chances increase by Sunday morning area wide in response to the frontal passage/isentropic lift behind the front and a fairly strong H5 impulse moving overheard. There may be some thunder out there, however, instability seems to be limited at this point as better lapse rates will be present well north and east of the CWFA. Can't rule out shower activity into the start of next workweek. However, rainfall should quickly taper off as a surface high pressure drops south into the ArkLaTex region. This will help filter in a drier airmass. Additionally, dry northwesterly flow sets up across the region, which should bring some sunshine. The sunny conditions will not last long as another H5 impulse rolls through the region by the end of the period increasing shower chances once again across the region. MARINE (Today through Thursday): Buoy 42020 reported east winds around 14 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas slightly under 4 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. Favorable marine conditions are expected today and tonight with generally moderate winds and seas prevailing. On Thursday, the increased interaction between high and low pressure will lead to stronger winds and higher seas. At a minimum, Small Craft Exercise Caution will be needed along the Lower Texas Coast with Small Craft Advisory a possibility, especially for the Laguna Madre. (Thursday Night through Tuesday): Moderate winds and seas are expected to start the long term period. Strong southeasterly return flow will be in place on the western periphery of a high pressure across northern Florida. Cautionary wording especially across the bay and nearshore waters may be needed Friday into Saturday morning ahead of our next cold front late Saturday/early Sunday. Behind the front cautionary wording or perhaps even Small Craft Advisories may be needed. High pressure will eventually build into the region early next week allowing for marine conditions to improve through the remainder of the period. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 59...Aviation