358 
FXUS64 KLUB 271715
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2019

.AVIATION...
MVFR stratus continues to scour out from LBB to PVW, but is likely
to resume after midnight on moistening south winds. Satellite
trends indicate CDS should see some elevated showers or maybe a
storm in the next few hours. Thereafter, chances of afternoon and
evening storms are very slim at all sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
The forecast challenge today surrounds whether or not convection 
will develop this afternoon. 

Surface S-SW flow will continue to aid in Gulf moisture flow over 
the CWA under zonal flow aloft. Long and short term models agree 
that dewpoints will reach the 50F range this afternoon with a 
diffuse dryline setting up across the Caprock. Soundings show a 
weakly unstable environment with the GFS showing a weaker CAP than 
the NAM. Given the lack of any real trigger, storms would be reliant 
on daytime heating to get going. While our confidence remains low 
that the daytime heating will be enough to initiate convection 
anything that does get going will have enough CAPE and shear to 
become strong. Given our uncertainty we have decided not to include 
a chance of isolated storms in the forecast and will let the next 
shift watch the environment and amend the forecast as needed. 

Zonal flow aloft will remain intact tomorrow with westerly surface 
winds. This will advect warm and dry air across the CWA resulting in 
area wide 80 degree highs. Friday, weak lee side surface troughing 
develops as an upper level wave moves eastward just north of the 
area. This will create another warm and breezy afternoon. Due to an 
impending Pacific cold front temperatures across the Extreme 
Southern Texas Panhandle Friday were slightly challenging. Depending 
on the exact timing of the front the Extreme Southern Texas 
Panhandle could remain just shy of the 80 degree mark on Friday. 
Thanks to the aforementioned Pacific cold front, Saturday and Sunday 
will be cooler than previously thought. Highs will now only reach 
the mid 50s. This means that there could be a 30 degree difference 
in high temperatures from Friday to Saturday.   

In the long term models continue to disagree on increased 
precipitation chances for the CWA. The GFS shows a wetter scenario 
while the ECMWF remaining dry. Given how far out this is we have 
kept POPs below mention. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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