634 FNUS73 KLMK 271200 FWSLMK Spot Forecast for Gerald...U.S Forest Service National Weather Service Louisville, KY 800 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2019 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on March 27. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION...High pressure will control the region today, bringing dry and mild conditions. Minimum relative humidity values should bottom out in the 25 to 30 percent range, however smoke dispersal will be marginal at best by afternoon due to weak boundary layer winds. Thursday relative humidity values will likely be a bit higher around 40 percent, however smoke dispersal will be much better. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Temperature.........Max 62. RH..................Min 25 to 30 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Mixing height.......3000-4100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 8 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor at ignition, marginal at best by afternoon (28600 knot-ft). LVORI...............2. ADI.................16 increasing to 30 early in the afternoon. DSI.................2. TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM Sky (%).........2 3 3 3 3 3 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............53 56 59 61 62 62 RH..............36 32 29 28 27 28 20 FT wind dir..SE S S S S SW 20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 2 3 3 20 FT wind gust. 4 4 5 6 6 Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 3.4 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 Transp wind dir.S S S SW SW SW Transp wind spd.3 5 6 7 8 8 LVORI...........2 2 2 1 2 1 ADI.............13 19 27 33 26 30 VRate kt-ft/10009 14 20 24 24 29 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Temperature.........Min 42. RH..................Max 73 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph early in the morning. Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL decreasing to 0-1100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 3 to 7 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (200-19700 knot-ft). LVORI...............3. ADI.................23 decreasing to 3. DSI.................2. TIME (EDT) 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM Sky (%).........4 6 7 8 10 11 10 9 8 14 20 26 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............61 58 55 52 50 48 46 45 45 44 44 43 RH..............31 33 38 43 48 51 58 60 62 62 62 67 20 FT wind dir..SW S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT wind spd..3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 5 5 20 FT wind gust.6 6 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Transp wind dir.SW SW S S S S S S S S S S Transp wind spd.7 6 3 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 Dispersion......2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 LVORI...........2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 ADI.............23 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 VRate kt-ft/100020 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Temperature.........Max 70. RH..................Min 41 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the morning becoming light, then becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph with gusts to around 15 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL increasing to 4300-4700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph late in the morning. Smoke dispersal.....increasing to good to excellent (54600-93400 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............2. ADI.................7 increasing to 89. DSI.................2. TIME (EDT) 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM Sky (%).........31 36 41 38 35 32 37 42 47 52 57 62 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............42 42 43 47 52 57 61 64 67 69 70 70 RH..............70 73 73 68 61 55 49 46 43 42 41 42 20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..5 5 3 5 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 20 FT wind gust.6 6 6 11 13 14 15 15 14 14 15 14 Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.7 4.5 Transp wind dir.S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW Transp wind spd.7 7 8 10 15 18 20 21 22 23 23 22 Dispersion......2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 LVORI...........3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ADI.............3 5 6 8 11 35 53 50 57 89 92 86 VRate kt-ft/10000 0 1 3 10 24 39 55 68 86 93 85 $$ Forecaster...BJS Requested by...Shawn Woodbury Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 1904659.0/LMK .DELDT 03/27/19 .EMAIL shawnmwoodbury@fs.fed.us