130 FXUS62 KFFC 271059 AAA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 659 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2019 .UPDATE FOR AVIATION... PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 406 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/... A quiet weather period is expected this short term period. Dry high pressure moves over the area today and continues through Thursday. Lingering cloud cover is expected to dissipate with sunshine prevailing thereafter. Forecast high temperatures are running about 2 to 10 degrees below normal across the area today and within about 3-4 degrees of normal on Thursday. Forecast low temperatures are running around to as much as 5-10 degrees below normal for tonight. Overall confidence is high. BDL LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/... To begin the extended period, upper-level ridging over the southeastern CONUS will be flattening out as WSW flow aloft builds in over the area. At the surface, the forecast area will still be under the influence of high pressure east of the Appalachians. Dry conditions and clear skies can be expected due to the influence of the high pressure. While dry conditions will remain in place Thursday night as the period begins, the WSW flow aloft will lead to increasing humidity and cloud cover going into the weekend. Gradual warming will be ongoing each day through the end of the week, with high temperatures mainly 2-4 degrees above climatological normals on Friday increasing to 4-8 degrees above climatological normals by Saturday. The next system approaches the area this weekend as an upper level trough drops from the Great Lakes region down to the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, a low pressure system out ahead of the trough will drop a cold front into the the Mississippi Valley by late Saturday night, which will push eastward towards Georgia on Sunday. Model guidance has come into good agreement regarding the timing of the frontal passage and the timing of the associated precipitation, with the boundary entering northwest Georgia in the overnight period late Saturday and pushing southeastward out of the area by late Sunday night. A bit of disagreement still exists regarding rainfall amounts, with the latest GFS solution presenting a much drier solution than the wetter ECMWF solution. Enough instability is expected to be present with this system to warrant a mention of a slight chance of thunder, with the best chances for thunderstorms being during the afternoon hours Sunday in central Georgia. Marginal low-level shear and lapse rates associated with this system indicate that organized severe weather is unlikely, but will continue to monitor severe potential as guidance continues to get a better handle on things. Models then diverge in the handling of a Gulf wave close behind the cold front at the beginning of next week. GFS develops this wave more quickly and significantly farther north, bringing widespread precipitation into the forecast area by Monday night and throughout much of the day on Tuesday. Meanwhile, ECMWF keeps this wave and associated precipitation limited to the Florida panhandle. To account for this uncertainty, have maintained mainly low-end chance PoPs throughout the area Monday through early Tuesday morning before dropping down to mostly slight chance PoPs by the daytime Tuesday. King && FIRE WEATHER... Much lower humidities are expected today with the lowest over the se forecast area. Min humidities there are expected in the 18-25 percent range for several hours with winds 6 to 12 mph. With the recent wet weather, fuels will need a day to dry out before high fire danger is a significant concern. Min humidities of 25 to 30 percent can be expected for most of the area on Thursday with most winds around 5 mph or less. BDL && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... Lingering clouds and VFR ceilings dissipating this morning. Surface winds ENE 8-14 kts with some gusts to 20 kts, diminishing early tonight. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence for all elements. BDL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 60 37 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 61 39 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 60 34 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 62 39 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 65 40 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 59 37 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 62 37 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 64 39 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 62 38 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 65 42 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BDL LONG TERM....King AVIATION...BDL