820 
FXUS63 KGLD 270920
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
320 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2019

Short term forecast concerns include the possibility of isolated 
strong to severe storms after midnight tonight into Thursday 
morning, and the likelihood of rain showers Thursday night through 
Friday mixing with and changing to snow Friday night.

The upper ridge in place over the central high plains flattens 
somewhat as a couple of weak short wave troughs move east of the 
Rockies and move across the high plains today through Thursday.  On 
Friday a stronger disturbance moves east of the Rockies and comes 
into phase with the upper trough rotating through the northern 
plains.

The surface trough in place over eastern Colorado this morning moves 
eastward across the forecast area with thunderstorms expected to 
develop along and ahead of the surface trough where a strong 
nocturnal low level jet develops along with an area of instability 
and decent shear to bring the possibility of isolated strong to 
severe thunderstorms mainly east of a line from McCook, Nebraska to 
Gove, Kansas after midnight tonight.

On the back side of the surface trough, dry conditions are expected 
with RH values dropping to less than 20% across far eastern Colorado 
extending across far northwest Kansas and into far southwest 
Nebraska Wednesday afternoon. Winds will remain mainly light on 
Wednesday, so do not expect any fire weather concerns at this time.

The area of showers over the eastern sections of the forecast area 
Wednesday night will move off to the east during the day on Thursday 
as a cold front pushes into the region. Additional rain showers will 
likely spread from west to east across the forecast area Thursday 
night and continue trough the day across much of the area on Friday. 
With temperatures continuing to cool, those rain showers will mix 
with and change to snow Friday night. Little if any snowfall 
accumulation is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2019

At the start of the forecast period, an upper ridge is situated over 
British Columbia Canada and a broad upper trough extends from the 
West Coast, south into Kansas, and east into Iowa.  High pressure 
moving through the region will allow for dry conditions. 
Temperatures will remain below normal with daytime highs in the mid 
40s and Sunday morning lows in the low to mid-20s.  Normal highs are 
in the upper 50s and normal lows range from the upper 20s to low 30s.

The pattern will become more active as several shortwave troughs 
move through the Central U.S. between Sunday and the end of the 
forecast period.  A few rain and snow showers are possible Sunday 
and Monday.  Chances for widespread precipitation increase toward 
mid-week.  Sunday and Monday, a gradual warming trend will return 
high temperatures to near normal. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. 
Southwesterly low level jet near 50kts will result in low level 
wind shear concerns through about sunrise this morning. Wednesday
night, there will be low chances for elevated thunderstorms towards
the end of the TAF forecast period. Confidence too low in impacting
either terminal to include at this time.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...024