191 FXUS63 KGLD 262125 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 325 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 323 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019 Forecast issues will be temperature forecast through Thursday, near critical fire weather issues Wednesday, and chance of thunderstorms/severe weather Wednesday night/early Thursday. Satellite continuing to show an amplified from the Pacific into North America. As far as mid and upper levels are concerned models started out well. For tonight/Wednesday...Quiet, dry, and warm weather this period. Overnight temperatures will mild with warm air advection keeping them from dropping much. Models not in total agreement on how warm to get. Some models cooled it off a few degrees and others warmed it up. A weak surface trough sags south into the area from the north so will not be getting any downslope wind help. So went in the middle of the guidance. Right now the only location that has a chance to break a record is McCook with the forecast within 2 degrees. Once again relative humidities will range from 15 to 17 percent along and west of the Colorado border. However, due to the above mentioned surface trough, the winds will be variable in direction, mostly upslope and less than 10 mph. So do not see major fire weather issues unless the models have totally missed the boat. For Wednesday night/Thursday...Weather starts to get more active in this period. Late in the afternoon into early evening some surface based convection will be just to our south. As the night progresses, warm front moves in from the south while strong warm air advection at 700 mb in advance of a strong shortwave develops. Theta-e lapse rates in the mid levels become negative in advance of the surface and mid level features and coincides with the strong forcing aloft. Could also make the case from the middle of the night into the morning hours that a right rear quadrant could be near the northern portion of the area. Nam and Gfs are showing 1000 to 2000j of Cape with the Nam on the higher end of this. So thunderstorms should rapidly develop from late in the evening and especially between 06z and 09z. If the instability is realized there is potential for a few of these storms to become severe. The main action from this looks to north and east of the area but looks to catch us. Also something else to watch precipitable water values 2 to 3 standard deviation above normal in the eastern portion of the area. So locally heavy rainfall will be possible. If models are correct there could be near 30 degree range in high temperatures on Thursday from southwest to northeast. Temperatures near 70 in the southwest to lower 50s or slightly lower in the northeast. With the upslope and clouds in the northeast portion, I lowered what the forecast builder gave me. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 244 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019 A trough moves across the central Plains Friday into Saturday. A weak ridge moves across the Tri-State region Sunday with a weak trough feature moving southeast across the area Sunday night. High pressure pushes north into the central Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. A trough develops over the northwest U.S. by Tuesday night. Due to the passage of a cold front Thursday, temperatures drop into the 40s and 50s Friday. Temperatures begin to warm back up Sunday into the 50s before reaching the 60s Monday and Tuesday. Low temperature follow suit with lows in the 20s through Saturday, warming back up into the 30s and 40s by Tuesday night. Chances for rain and thunderstorms increase Thursday night continuing through Friday. Due to below freezing low temperatures Friday night, rain will transition to snow. Little to no accumulation is expected at this time. The snow is expected to move completely out of the Tri-State region by early Saturday morning. Conditions will be dry following the snow with chances for rain and thunderstorms returning Tuesday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1142 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019 Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld, south winds near 18 knots with gusts to around 26 knots are expected until 01z. At 01z the gusts stop but the sustained winds remain near 16 knots until 11z. At 11z the winds will shift to the southwest and decrease to 13 knots. Those shift to the west at 10 knots at 14z then to the northwest at 8 knots at 16z. For Kmck, south winds near 15 knots with gusts to 23 knots are expected until 00z. From 00z to 13z, south winds of 8 to 11 knots will occur. From 05z to 13z llws is expected as well. At 13z the winds will become west at 7 knots. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...NEWMAN AVIATION...BULLER