088 FXUS64 KMAF 261139 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 639 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Satellite shows low clouds INVOF CNM/HOB/MAF/FST but coverage still looks to be less than extensive, but coverage is increasing. As such models seem a little quick/aggressive with coverage and have opted to used TEMPO groups at HOB/FST/PEQ, prevailing MVFR may eventually still be needed, but we will wait before committing to that. SE winds increased mid/late afternoon with G25KTS, strong at FST around 00Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 439 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019/ DISCUSSION... Current WV imagery shows upper ridging across the western U.S with bountiful high clouds streaming into West Texas. Low clouds are also on the increase this morning thanks to a sfc high that has migrated toward the eastern U.S.. Low level moisture will continue to increase this afternoon especially across the western mountain areas. The HRRR and NAM NEST suggest isolated orographically driven storms will develop this afternoon. A Marginal Risk lies just west of the forecast area. However, lapse rates and bulk shear will be sufficient enough across the western CWA for a storm or two to produce marginally severe hail. High temperatures should be cooler in southeast New Mexico and the mountain areas today. Wednesday and Thursday will become steadily warmer with increasing southeasterly sfc winds and higher dewpoints across the Permian Basin. Low temps will be fairly mild through Thursday night. A dryline will try to develop during the day Thursday, however there will be little to no upper forcing for convection, if any storm develops it would have to be diurnally driven. By Friday, an upper trough will begin to move into the 4-corners region and bring a Pac front through the area. Winds will increase and become westerly as the dryline surges eastward. RH will drop significantly behind the front and may increase fire weather concerns during the afternoon. Temperatures will be very warm mainly into the upper 80s. Maybe the first 90 degree day of the year at MAF? A somewhat robust front will come into the picture on Saturday morning with stiff north winds and CAA. Temperatures will decrease well below normal with highs in the 50s and 60s expected. Another reinforcing shot of cold air arrives on Sunday as an upper trough deepens and moves south toward the region. Models generate QPF on Sun night-Mon morning when temps will be coldest. Latest MEX and ECM suggest lows in the 30s across the northern CWA. We will have to see how this plays out, for now looks pretty cold heading into early next week. -Salerno FIRE WEATHER... Very warm and dry conditions will develop across SE NM and the Trans Pecos on Thur in wake of the dryline. Winds in the 5KFT-10KFT layer around 20kts, at the strongest, which will likely result in 20FT winds near 20 mph at times, stronger in favored areas of the GDP Mtns. By Fri dry and very warm air will surge out much farther east clearing the Permian Basin. Winds are likely to be just a little stronger. By Fri afternoon fuels across SE NM and the Trans Pecos will have undergone some strong drying with ERC probably just above the 50th percentile and RFTIs could approach a 6 resulting in Critical Fire Wx. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 73 53 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 69 54 78 52 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 75 57 74 58 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 55 77 56 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 64 50 73 57 / 20 20 0 0 Hobbs 66 51 74 51 / 0 10 10 0 Marfa 72 46 77 48 / 20 20 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 73 55 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 72 55 74 56 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 57 79 55 / 10 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$