090 FXUS63 KTOP 260425 AAA AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Topeka KS 1125 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019 The current upper level pattern shows a shortwave over Nebraska riding through the northwest flow. A broad area of surface high pressure is located over the north-central portion of the CONUS. Conditions are expected to be quiet overnight with the center of the surface high pressure system moving to the western Great Lakes region. Some low and mid level clouds are expected to remain in place tonight as the shortwave trough aloft moves over the area. Lows look to be a little cooler than the last several nights with temperatures dropping to near 40 degrees. In fact, several locations could be in the upper 30s by sunrise Tuesday. An upper ridge will begin to build over the central US tomorrow. Drier air in the mid levels will allow for more peaks of sunshine tomorrow and winds will remain fairly light. Low level WAA will be on the increase during the day and highs are expected to reach the low 60s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019 A more active pattern will take shape for the latter part of the week with rain returning to the forecast. A surface low will develop in the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies Wednesday with the surface high pressure sliding over the East Coast. The pressure gradient over our region will begin to strengthen, which will result in an increase in winds. Sustained southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected Wednesday afternoon with gusts to 35 mph possible. A nice boost in temperatures is expected as a result of the upper ridge in place and WAA occurring in the low levels with good mixing of the PBL. Expect highs to reach the low 70s for the first time since last fall (Topeka was last in the 70s on October 29th). POPs will begin to increase Thursday in response to lift associated with divergence aloft and increasing low level moisture. A warm front will start to set up from central KS into northeast KS and surface dewpoints look to increase to near 60 degrees south of the warm front. BUFKIT soundings are showing elevated CAPE in the range of 300-600 J/kg Thursday afternoon with a small cap in place in the low levels. Everything combined, scattered rain showers with some rumbles of thunder will be possible Thursday afternoon. The surface low will begin to move from southwestern KS into east- central KS on Friday. A wide swath of rain and embedded storms looks to develop, especially along and just north of the center of the surface system. Light to moderate rainfall is likely to impact the CWA throughout the day Friday and into the early overnight hours. The current QPF from rainfall late this week ranges from a third of an inch in east-central KS to near two inches along the KS/NE border. Flooding of local streams and rivers, especially north of I-70 could again become an issue, especially with the rainfall on Friday. The system will begin to quickly depart the area on Saturday with rain chances coming to an end by midday Saturday. Winds will be gusty on the back side of the system and temperatures will be noticeably colder behind the system's cold front for the weekend. Temperatures Saturday night could even dip into the upper 20s. Surface high pressure will be in control of conditions into early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019 Expect VFR conditions to prevail at all but TOP sites overnight with some potential for MVFR VIS conds to develop around the lower river bottoms of TOP given light winds and high RH. One limiting factor for more widespread fog will be the sct to bkn CIGS in the 060-080 range associated with the mid level wave that will move across the area overnight. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Teefey LONG TERM...Teefey AVIATION...Omitt