273 FXUS64 KMAF 251658 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1158 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected this afternoon through much of the night at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop around 26/09z at KFST and KPEQ. MVFR ceilings may develop on or after 26/12z at some of the other terminals. Will continue to monitor. 12 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 607 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/ DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. AVIATION... VFR wx to prevail through the forecast. Winds will increase to near 10-15kts briefly around 15Z at MAF/INK, but less than 10kts elsewhere. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/ DISCUSSION... A backdoor cold front has just arrived at MAF and will continue to push south thru the CWA today. No post frontal clouds are being detected on the GOES-16 Night Fog channel, however there is a patch of fog that has developed over the Lower Trans Pecos where dew points are still in the mid 50s. Although skies will be mostly clear today, high temps will be 8-10 degrees cooler than yesterday with a NE wind. A few showers could develop in Terrell county before the front moves thru late this afternoon. Winds will begin to veer and increase out of the SE on Tuesday as the SFC high moves eastward. This will allow moist flow to return to the region and bring a slight chance of precip to the mountains. Both the NAM and GFS are showing light QPF over the western zones. Upsloping winds will attribute to cooler high temperatures west of the Pecos River tomorrow. On Wednesday, the 500 mb flow will back to the SW and promote increasing cloudiness. At the SFC, winds will remain southeasterly and continue to pump moisture rich Gulf of Mexico air into the area. Temperatures will be mild across the Permian Basin with highs in the mid 70s. As an upper trough moves into the western U.S. on Thursday, a dryline will develop and may try to push east during peak heating. The models have spit out very isolated convection, however confidence is too low to include PoPs in the grids at this time. Temperatures will be back in the 80s west of the dryline on Thursday afternoon. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week as 850mb temps approach 23 to 24C with downsloping winds and very low RH. The drying could be significant enough for fire weather to develop. We will watch the model trends carefully. Beyond that, the models are still indicating a somewhat robust cold front will arrive next weekend with temperatures dipping below normal. -Salerno && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 46 73 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 49 69 51 79 / 0 10 20 10 Dryden 57 73 55 75 / 20 20 10 0 Fort Stockton 52 71 53 77 / 0 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 49 65 51 74 / 0 20 20 0 Hobbs 43 69 48 73 / 0 0 10 10 Marfa 46 70 46 77 / 0 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 47 72 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 47 71 52 72 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 49 73 53 78 / 0 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$