979 FXUS61 KBGM 250759 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 359 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over NY and PA today. While temperatures are forecast to be much colder than normal through Tuesday, a rapid warming trend is expected to begin midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A surface trough with limited moisture will move south of our region this morning and give way to building high pressure. A cold northerly flow will keep temperatures from rising out of the 30s over most of our forecast area. A cold day will lead into a cold night. Temperatures will drop into the teens across NY and PA Monday night with a few readings in the single digits possible over our northern counties. The dry and cold weather will continue into Tuesday, though a little moderation is expected with temperatures climbing into the upper-30s across interior NY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 350 AM update... Very quiet weather in the short term with a large area of surface high pressure passing across the region, followed by moderating temperatures as its return flow begins. Upper level cyclonic flow will be replaced by weak ridging aloft into midweek, and when combined with much drier air and the presence of the strong surface high, the chances for precipitation will remain near zero. Despite warm air advection just getting started aloft Tuesday night, ideal radiational surface cooling conditions and very dry air will cause temperatures to plummet into the teens for most locations. However, abundant sunshine and continued dry air will lead to a wide diurnal range as highs reach upper 40s to lower 50 Wednesday. This will also produce relative humidity values into the 20s percent range in the afternoon, and in some spots even a touch below that. The surface high will shift off the New England coast Wednesday night as the next system prepares to move in across the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. High thin clouds may begin to advect into the region late Wednesday night as well, which along with an uptick in southwesterly winds from strengthening pressure gradient, will prevent temperatures from falling below the mid 20s-lower 30s for lows. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 350 AM Update... Operational models have shifted a bit during the past 24 hours, in decidedly allowing a frontal zone to enter our vicinity and then hang up Thursday through Saturday, if not even shift slightly back north ahead of a wave of low pressure. However, they still do advertise a final push towards cooler conditions by the second half of the weekend and beyond. Thursday afternoon and especially Thursday night through Friday night, there will be encroaching chances for showers, but temperatures are still likely to be a ways above climatology through at least Saturday. There remains plenty of uncertainty as to precipitation amounts, durations, and even types during the transition from above normal early in the weekend to cooler again Sunday onward. Previous discussion... A weak front will push in from the west Thursday with a minimal amt of rain expected during the day as the dry air will first need to be overcome. The front will lay out west- east across the region Thur night through Friday with scattered rain showers possible...especially across central NY. Winds will increase on Thursday out of the s/sw with sustained winds around 10 to 15 mph and gusts around 20 mph possible. The next system will move in from the sw...tracking from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. There is still a good deal of uncertainty with respect to the track of the sfc low...which will be significant in determining precip amts and timing. For now just keep with a chance of rain showers into the weekend. Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will remain on the mild side with afternoon highs in the 50s and lower 60s, and overnight lows in the upper 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. A few MVFR ceilings are forecast to form early this morning, especially at KITH and KBGM. Winds will be northwesterly at 5 to 10 knots. Outlook... Tuesday through Thursday night...VFR. Friday...Restrictions possible in rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...BJT/MDP AVIATION...DJP