675 FXUS65 KABQ 232357 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 557 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2019 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE A back door cold front will sag into the eastern plains tonight with a northerly wind shift along the eastern border of NM. The front will probably retreat some Sunday, while lingering across the northeast corner of the state. An upper level trough will pass north of NM on Sunday causing winds aloft to strengthen and ushering a dry slot over the bulk of the state with plenty of sunshine, ample atmospheric mixing and a corresponding strengthening of surface wind gusts. An exception will be along the CO border where there will be some clouds, as well as isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially along the quasi-stationary front over the northeast. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...244 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2019... .SYNOPSIS... A warming trend is in play through mid week that will send temperatures above normal areawide by Tuesday or Wednesday. Gulf moisture will surge north into New Mexico late Tuesday and result in showers and a few storms across the eastern half of the state. Drying is forecast Wednesday into Thursday with increasing westerly flow resulting in windy to very windy conditions. Cooler and unsettled conditions may return by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Warmer conditions prevail today under partly sunny skies, with breezy to windy conditions across eastern portions of the state as the upper low pulls slowly northeast away from the area into the central U.S. Plains. A weak shortwave trough, currently pushing into northern California, will move east across the southern Rockies tomorrow, generating a few showers and storms near the CO/NM border. Otherwise, a warming trend is in play through mid week that will send temperatures above normal areawide by Tuesday or Wednesday. Differences in the latest model solutions continue with regard to Gulf moisture advection Tuesday across the area. The GFS has been consistent from run-to-run showing PWATs ramping up with southerly low layer flow Tuesday, resulting in a round of showers and storms through Tuesday night. The latest ECMWF is much less bullish on that scenario. Our forecast is closer to the GFS for now, but limited PoPs down significantly from the GFS MOS numbers and did not mention showers/storms for the Albuquerque Metro. The westerlies punch in Wednesday and scour-out our moisture, with windy conditions and fire weather concerns ramping-up (see Fire Weather discussion below for details). Further drying and even windier conditions develop Thursday as a shortwave trough moves across the southern Rockies. Strong downslope winds on Thursday will send temperatures soaring well into the 80s across the east central and southeast plains. Significant medium range model disagreement exists beyond Thursday, so will refrain from getting into the details for now due to lower forecast confidence. 11 && .FIRE WEATHER... Breezy west and northwest winds today will trend stronger Sunday as a weak wave passes north of NM. The strongest winds are likely over eastern NM. Humidity will trend lower in all areas and critical fire weather conditions are likely for an hour or two across the east central plains. Coverage is not great enough to warrant a Red Flag Warning at this time. Monday and Tuesday will be transition days with a weak shortwave ridge cresting over NM. Winds will be light Monday with widespread poor ventilation. Southerly flow will increase Tuesday and allow deeper moisture to stream north into eastern NM. Scattered showers and storms are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday over the eastern half of NM. Another upper level wave will pass north of NM Thursday and drive strong westerly winds across the state. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are looking more likely Thursday with well above normal temperatures, high Haines, and single digit humidity. A cold front is expected to move through the area Friday with continued breezy conditions, cooler temperatures, and slightly higher humidity. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$