783 FXUS61 KBGM 232226 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 626 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cross the area tonight, before milder air pushes in Sunday. A cold front will spread light snow and rain showers across New York and Pennsylvania Sunday night into Monday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Only minor changes with the early evening update. Residual clouds have rapidly dried up from the Catskills to the higher terrain of north central NY downwind of Lake Ontario. With continued insolation, subsidence and low- level dry air advection all of central NY and northeast PA will become clear this evening and this will last through the night. Clear skies here is a rarity this time of year and we will take it! Some high level moisture advections will bring in mid to high level clouds across much of central NY and northeast PA Sunday afternoon ahead of next system to affect region Sunday night to Monday. With a more southwest flow Sunday and sunshine at least into the early afternoon, we will see temperatures into the 50s. Therefore we will have a quiet period tonight through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 3 pm update... A cold front drops southeast through the area Sunday night ahead of a surface low that tracks east to the mid Atlantic states Monday. Qpf under a tenth of an inch and snowfall amounts under an inch. Weak forcing with a limited time of deep moisture. Lift is not through the dendrite zone which is 10 to 15k ft. Also keeping the snow amounts down will be the temperatures. Temperatures start in the 40s ahead of the front Sunday evening so any showers will start as rain. Temperatures do fall into the 20s in CNY and low to mid 30s Wyoming Valley and Poconos of PA. In the far south mainly rain with these temperatures. Most of the accumulating light snow will be late Sunday night. Sped up the timing of shower exit to Monday morning in south central NY and midday far south. So with afternoon sunshine bumped temperatures up a little to mid 30s to mid 40s. This is close to guidance. High pressure drops southeast through the Great Lakes to be over the area Tuesday night. Very dry air is with the high so dry and mainly clear. Lows Monday and Tuesday nights mostly in the teens. Highs Tuesday mostly in the 30s. Still below average temperatures but warmer air in the long term. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will be in firm control on Wednesday, bringing plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures (highs in the mid 40s to near 50). Lows Wednesday night will likely be in the mid 20s to near 30. The above mentioned high pressure system then continues moving east of the area Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing a southerly flow. At the same time, an upper level ridge will build in over the region. This will result in warmer temperatures on Thursday under mostly sunny skies, with highs likely getting well into the 50s. Lows Thursday night look to be in the mid 30s to near 40. Friday still looks to be the warmest day of this period, with highs possibly approaching 60 degrees in spots, with upper 50s expected elsewhere. Throughout Friday, our next storm system begins to take shape, likely moving into the Great Lakes region. As a result some leading rain showers are possible across portions of CNY late Friday afternoon, then slowly spreading eastward across the remainder of our area Friday night into Saturday. That being said, there are some significant timing differences between the models regarding this system. The 12Z GFS is the quickest, bringing rain showers late Friday into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the 12Z ECMWF and Canadian are noticeably slower, holding off much of the rain shower activity until Saturday. Due to this uncertainty in timing, combined with the fact that this is still so far out, kept POPs no greater than chance for Friday night through Saturday. Temperatures will likely remain mild with lows mostly in the 40s Friday night and highs on Saturday once again likely in the upper 50s to near 60 in spots. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions through the TAF period with mainly clear skies. West to northwest winds will run from 15 to 18 knots sustained with gusts 25 to 30 knots this afternoon into early evening. Once the sun sets, the convective mixing will cease and there will be rapid low-level net radiational cooling of the boundary layer. The effect of this will be to drop the winds dramatically by 2z or so as an inversion forms from the cooling. With the pressure gradient aloft still fairly strong we will see low- level wind shear all terminals for several hours and possibly through the night. Winds will be from about 290-300 degrees at 35 to 40 knots at 2000 feet AGL with a west to northwest surface wind 5 to 8 knots. Thus have LLWS all terminals after 2z until Sunday morning when the convective mixing begins again and the winds aloft slacken. We expect west to southwest winds 6 to 10 knots Sunday morning with some gusts possible to 15-20 knots by early afternoon. Outlook... Sunday Afternoon through Sunday night...VFR until MVFR ceilings form late Sunday night. A few rain or snow showers possible toward sunrise Monday. Monday...Any MVFR ceilings lifting through the day with scattered rain or snow showers ending. Monday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...DJN/MWG SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...DJN