715 FXUS64 KBMX 231159 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 659 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019 .UPDATE... For 12Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... Today and tonight. Another pleasant Spring day on tap across Central Alabama with light winds, low humidity, and plenty of sunshine. Some cirrus will spread across the area in advance of the next storm system. Temperatures today will be about 2-3 degrees warmer than Friday, which will result in readings mostly in the lower to middle 70s, with upper 60s in the northeast. Warmer temperatures expected tonight as boundary layer winds become southerly 10-15 mph after midnight, with lows in the 40s. 58/rose .LONG TERM... Sunday through Friday. Sunday should feature warm and dry conditions for most of the forecast area. However, moisture will be increasing as southerly flow takes shape ahead of an upper-level trough. Aided by an approaching 300 mb jet streak, there may be enough moisture and lift for isolated shower activity Sunday afternoon and evening north of Interstate 20. Additional vorticity is expected to develop in the base of the approaching trough across the Southern Plains on Sunday night. This will give support to a strengthening cold front to our northwest on Monday morning. A broad area of lift should overspread the forecast area during the day on Monday, resulting in multiple bands of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms due to the presence of relatively cold 700-500 mb temperatures. Forecast soundings reveal unidirectional flow with 500 mb winds around 50 kt, which would support a potential for instances of damaging winds with the strongest storms. However, this potential still remains unclear and will depend upon convective evolution. Confidence is too low to include any mention of severe storms in the HWO. A cold front will move through Monday afternoon and evening with rain chances decreasing Monday night. Most of the forecast area should remain cooler and dry on Tuesday, but there is a small chance of additional shower activity in our eastern counties as a secondary 500 mb shortwaves moves through. Cool and dry conditions should prevail for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure becomes entrenched across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Warmer conditions are expected on Friday as easterly surface winds become southerly in advance of an upstream trough. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF Discussion. With the exception of some smoke producing MVFR vsbys at sites KASN and KANB, VFR conds expected thru the period. A sfc ridge will shift east of Alabama by 18z and sfc winds will become east and northeast at 3-5 kts. Sct-bkn cirrus after 18z. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will keep conditions dry through Saturday. An approaching cold front will bring rain chances back to the area in the Sunday night to Monday time frame. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 40 73 53 67 / 0 0 10 40 70 Anniston 69 44 75 53 69 / 0 0 10 30 70 Birmingham 72 48 75 55 69 / 0 0 10 40 70 Tuscaloosa 74 48 75 56 71 / 0 0 10 50 70 Calera 72 46 75 55 70 / 0 0 10 30 70 Auburn 72 46 76 54 71 / 0 0 0 10 70 Montgomery 75 46 79 55 75 / 0 0 0 10 70 Troy 75 43 78 54 76 / 0 0 0 10 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$