596 FXUS65 KABQ 222106 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 306 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system moving east along the Colorado border will continue to bring a few showers and snow showers to the northern mountains as well as strong to severe thunderstorms to far eastern New Mexico early this evening. The showers and storms will move east of the state late this evening. Much more tranquil weather will move in for the weekend with warmer temperatures, mostly sunny skies and afternoon breezes. The quiet spring weather continues into Monday before increasing Gulf moisture brings the return of at least slight shower chances to much of the state late-day Tuesday into Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Closed upper-low centered near Dulce moving due east as of this writing. Associated surface cold front near a Glenwood to ABQ to Taos line. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to fire along and east of the front early this afternoon. SPC just issued a severe thunderstorms watch (watch # 30) for Quay, Curry and Roosevelt counties. Main threat from severe storms will be strong wind gusts and large hail. Strong to severe convection in east-central NM looks like it will be rather short- lived as much drier air behind the above mentioned cold front races in from the west. Models agree that the vast majority of the convective activity will be east into west TX after 03Z (9:00 PM MDT). A few snow showers linger over the northern mountains after 03Z along with brisk west and northwest winds. Much more tranquil spring weather is expected over the weekend underneath zonal flow aloft. Northwest winds get a bit breezy most areas Sunday with a weak ripple/short-wave trough moving through. High temperatures rise several degree each day and reach seasonal averages most areas Sunday. GFS and ECWMF agree that a transitory ridge moves over western NM Monday, allowing temperatures to warm to slightly above average central and west. Ridge axis moves east of NM Tuesday, resulting in southwest flow aloft and a lee side sfc trough/low near Denver. Given a sprawling surface high over the central and eastern U.S., a stout sely return flow sets up over NM Tuesday. GFS goes bonkers will showers and storms while the ECMWF keeps this over NM too stable for showers and storms. Canadian model is somewhere in between and trended the forecast in the direction of the Canadian. Wednesday and Thursday look mainly dry and quiet underneath west or southwest flow aloft. Forecast uncertainty increases late next week with each global model handling a deep trough/upper low over Inland Northwest and Northern Rockies differently. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... Accumulating precipitation across northern and eastern areas should end by early this evening as an upper level low pressure system and Pacific cold front exit the region to the northeast. A weakening ridge of high pressure will cross with warmer temperatures and generally lighter winds on Saturday, except along and east of the central mountain chain where breezy conditions will persist due to a lee side surface trough. An upper level trough crossing the central Rockies will cause the flow aloft to strengthen and a lee trough to strengthen on Sunday. Breezy conditions will develop, especially in the east where locally windy conditions are expected. Humidities will drop low enough for locally critical fire weather conditions on the east central plains during the afternoon. A back door cold front will sag into the eastern plains Sunday night with higher humidities and cooler temperatures there on Monday. A moist, south and southeasterly, low level return flow will then develop across southern and eastern areas Monday night through Tuesday night with increasing humidities. There may even be some rain showers across central and eastern areas, but any wetting precip will be spotty. Drier air will filter in from the southwest on Wednesday and especially Thursday as a broad upper trough crosses the Pacific NW. The flow aloft will strengthen over NM in the process, as will a lee side surface trough, leading to breezy to windy conditions across the forecast area. Gusts could reach 50 mph on Thursday along and east of the northern and central mountains. With high temperatures a few to 14 degrees above normal and Haines indices potentially in the 5 to 6 range on Thursday, there will be a risk of widespread critical fire weather conditions, except across the northwest plateau and north central mountains. Localized critical fire weather conditions will be possible west of the continental divide on Wednesday afternoon. 44 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Plenty of aviation weather-related concerns over the next 24hrs as a Pacific low approaches and moves over the region. Plenty of moisture across the eastern highlands and plains with rain/drizzle/fog/low stratus resulting in IFR conditions with areas of LIFR. Another round of convection will develop today just east of the central mountains, with potential thunderstorm impacts at KLVS and KTCC. A few storms may approach severe levels near the TX border this afternoon and early evening. Intermittent snow is expected in the northern mountains through tonight with frequent mountain obscurations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 31 57 34 61 / 5 0 10 0 Dulce........................... 23 52 28 54 / 10 5 5 20 Cuba............................ 27 52 32 56 / 20 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 24 58 27 61 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 23 54 25 58 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 23 58 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 26 58 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 33 65 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 20 46 26 49 / 20 10 5 20 Los Alamos...................... 33 53 35 56 / 10 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 30 52 32 56 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 26 47 29 51 / 20 5 0 5 Red River....................... 20 40 22 42 / 20 10 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 19 43 22 46 / 20 10 0 0 Taos............................ 26 51 28 55 / 10 5 0 0 Mora............................ 29 51 31 56 / 10 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 33 58 34 61 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 33 53 34 57 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 30 57 31 61 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 38 61 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 37 64 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 32 66 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 36 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 26 67 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 36 62 38 66 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 37 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 32 54 35 58 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 29 57 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 26 59 28 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 29 55 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 32 60 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 37 62 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 34 57 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 26 58 27 60 / 30 0 0 10 Raton........................... 28 61 30 63 / 10 0 0 5 Springer........................ 28 61 31 65 / 10 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 29 56 29 60 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 32 64 31 66 / 40 0 0 5 Roy............................. 31 61 32 65 / 20 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 35 68 36 71 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 33 66 35 70 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 34 71 34 76 / 20 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 35 68 37 73 / 30 0 0 0 Portales........................ 35 70 37 75 / 30 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 35 69 37 74 / 10 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 38 74 39 80 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 39 67 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 35 63 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ510>515. && $$ 33