137 FXUS63 KMQT 221813 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 213 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 210 PM EDT FRI MAR 22 2019 Upper Michigan sits on the eastern edge of an approaching sfc high today as a nor'easter works its way up the Maine coastline. A relatively strong pressure gradient allowed for breezy north winds gusting to 30-40 mph near the lake over the east half and as high as 30 mph inland, but they've already begun to die down and will continue to do so as the high moves in. A brief burst of heavy snow over eastern Marquette county this morning brought a quick 1-2 inches of accumulation to a few spots. Dry low level air quickly cut that off well before noon, but some cloudiness is lingering mainly over the east half. This will gradually scatter out, and clear skies are expected overnight. Winds are expected to become calm to light and variable, and radiational cooling should be relatively efficient, so went on the low end of guidance with teens lakeshore and mid to upper single digits inland. Some patchy ground fog will be possible in the interior overnight, mainly picked up in the RAP soundings, but with how dry the air is I didn't have enough confidence to put it in the grids. Airmass remains dry tomorrow despite winds swinging around the the SW and intensifying during the daytime. Clear skies and associated WAA will allow for a quick warm-up to the upper 40s and lower 50s except over the far east and especially near Manistique where they may be stuck in the upper 30s. Since all the snow has long cleared off the conifers, wouldn't be surprised to see a few mid to upper 50s in downslope areas. Although sunset is now after 00Z Sunday and into the long term, figure it's worth mentioning that we are expecting great conditions for Aurora viewing Saturday evening after nightfall, with the Space Weather Prediction Center forecasting Kp numbers around 5 until 2AM EDT (peak solar activity will unfortunately be earlier in the afternoon). Moonrise is about 1130 EST and it was just full a couple days ago, so best viewing will be in the couple of hours prior to that. Find a nice dark spot away from city lights with a clear view to your north! .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 414 AM EDT FRI MAR 22 2019 Models indicate that an amplified mid/upper level ridge will persist over western Canada into early next week resulting in downstream nw flow through the Great Lakes. Although temps will remain generally above normal, a clipper shortwave trough moving through on Sunday will affect the area bringing light mixed pcpn and colder air into Monday. As the western Canadian ridge breaks down by the middle of next week and gets replaced by a trough, flow will become more zonal or even southwestly into the western Great Lakes for the middle to end of next week resulting in a trend toward above to much above normal temps. Saturday, Dry weather will prevail as ridging dominates the region. Milder air will move in with low-level wsw flow WAA on backside of sfc high pushing max temps into the mid 40s to upper 40s across much of the area, except closer to 40F far east, downstream of the colder waters of Lake MI. Abundant sunshine over the lower albedo forested areas could push temps closer to 50F over west half portions of the fcst area. Sunday, Another clipper shortwave is expected in on Sun that should bring light mixed pcpn into the area as models indicate a decent fgen response associated with the sharp cold frontal passage. Given continued minor model differences in timing of cold front and fairly shallow moisture indicated will continue with only low chance POPs in fcst. Any pcpn amounts should be light, generally less than 0.10 inch. Mon-Fri, below normal temps Monday in a northerly flow are expected to give way to moderation into the middle of the week as a more zonal flow pattern develops. Temps will climb from around 30 or mid 30s Monday to the mid and upper 40s across much of the area by Wed and likely mid 40s to mid 50s by Thu, warmest west half. Expect generally dry weather under ridging through much of the first half of the work week but then models indicate a sw flow shortwave and associated frontal boundary moving into the area during the Thu-Fri time frame. Plenty of model uncertainty on the timing/strength of shortwaves riding along this frontal boundary with both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF showing a stronger wave riding along the boundary and enhancing pcpn at some point during this time period, probably Thu night into Fri. Model consensus suggests much of the pcpn from this system will fall as rain over the se half of the fcst area, ahead and along the frontal boundary with a transition from rain to snow behind the boundary over the nw half of the cwa. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1258 PM EDT FRI MAR 22 2019 Leftover cloudiness will clear out this afternoon as dry low level air takes hold. VFR conditions are then expected through the TAF period at all sites. Gusty north winds this afternoon, mainly at KCMX and KSAW, will diminish through the afternoon and evening and will become calm overnight before picking up out of the southwest Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 210 PM EDT FRI MAR 22 2019 North winds up to 20 knots will continue to diminish across the east half of Lake Superior this evening. Winds come back up to 30 knots from the southwest on Sat from the tip of the Keweenaw westward. Northeast winds up to 30 knots are expected on Sun. No gales are expected at this time, and winds will be below 25 knots from Sunday night onward. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KCW LONG TERM...Voss AVIATION...KCW MARINE...KCW