794 FXUS62 KCHS 221813 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 213 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the region through the weekend. Low pressure may move across the region on Monday night through Tuesday night. High pressure will then rebuild. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... This Afternoon: West-northwest flow will persist across the Southeast United States along the southern periphery of a large mid/upper lvl trough of low pressure centered over the Northeast. At the sfc, high pressure centered over the Mississippi River Valley will gradually shift east as low pressure deepens off the Northeast coast. Given the setup, a west sfc wind will continue to advect dry air into the region and maintain clear skies. Temps should peak in the upper 60s across the Tri-County area to lower 70s across lower Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia. These temps should produce a fair amount of low-lvl mixing this afternoon, leading to breezy westerly winds topping out in the 20-25 mph range. The combination of these winds and RH values dipping into the 20-25% range could produce an elevated risk of fire weather this afternoon (see fire weather section below). Tonight: High pressure over the Upper Midwest will become the dominant feature, veering winds around to more northerly late tonight behind a passing front. Clear skies and a dry forecast will prevail. Lows are forecast to reach the low to mid 40s in most areas away from the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure over the area on Saturday will slide off the Carolina coast on Sunday. Dry weather with warming temperatures are expected. Highs Sunday will be in the mid to upper 70s. An upper shortwave will approach the area on Monday, pushing a surface low pressure system into central and eastern SC during the afternoon. 0-6 km flow will be predominantly westerly so moisture return ahead of the low will be somewhat limited. Isolated to scattered showers should move into the area late Monday afternoon. There may be enough instability to support a few thunderstorms as well. Strong warm advection will result in another warm day with highs in the upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A series of shortwaves will move through the area Monday night through Tuesday night while a backdoor cold front slowly sinks south through the area. We currently have the highest rain chances on Tuesday as this coincides with the front dropping through the area and the strongest PVA aloft. Cool high pressure will affect the area through Wednesday before weakening and shifting east, allowing for a warming trend late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at both KCHS and KSAV through 18Z Saturday. Westerly winds will gust up to around 20 kt at both terminals this afternoon. Extended Aviation: Flight restrictions possible Monday night through Tuesday night. && .MARINE... Today through Tonight: West winds this afternoon will gradually turn west-southwest late afternoon as dry high pressure extends over the waters. A brief surge in winds should occur this afternoon and conditions could be near advisory thresholds in the Charleston Harbor and the northern South Carolina waters. Overall, winds should top out in the 15-20 knot range with seas 2-4 feet out to 20 nm and 4-5 feet across offshore Georgia waters this afternoon. Overnight, winds will veer around to northerly after midnight. Winds will remain elevated in the 15-20 knot range and just below advisory thresholds. High pressure will maintain relatively benign marine conditions Saturday through Sunday night. Stronger southwest flow will setup on Monday ahead of a low pressure system, though the current forecast keeps conditions just below advisory levels. A strong northeast gradient will develop next Tuesday through Thursday behind the backdoor cold front. Small Craft Advisories are likely across most of the marine area. Rip Currents: Breezy westerly winds and moderate swell energy will combine to produce a moderate risk of rip currents at all beaches through this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Today: High pressure will build into the area as low pressure off the New England coast deepens. Dry air across the region will result in relative humidity values falling into the 20-25 percent range this afternoon. Westerly winds will also be breezy this afternoon, with frequent gusts into the 20-25 mph range. Given the conditions along with coordination with users/partners and surrounding NWS offices, a Fire Danger Statement has now been issued for all of Southeast Georgia and Southeast South Carolina until 8 PM. Saturday through Sunday: Critical or near-critical relative humidity values are likely to persist. && .EQUIPMENT... KCLX has returned to service. However, the radar will remain in clear air mode, VCP32, until Monday. Parts are on order. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DPB SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...DPB/JRL MARINE...DPB/JRL FIRE WEATHER... EQUIPMENT...