951 FXUS63 KFGF 221451 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 951 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 951 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019 Some lingering patchy fog west of Devils Lake and in the Detroit Lakes area, so extended mention for another hour. Should be gone soon as sat loop shows the small areas rapidly diminishing. The light winds have allowed for a few spots to drop down to near 10 this morning, with other sites much warmer in the mid to upper 20s. Think that localized effects will begin to even out as we get more sunshine and winds pick up just a bit, so will continue to keep highs in the mid to upper 30s with 40s in the trees. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019 High pressure over the area this morning with a clear sky and light winds. Temperatures quite variable depending on station location with some middle teens and a few spots holding in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Fog remains confined to Rugby-Harvey ND area and hasnt moved much...but certainly could affect DVL basin yet this morning. Also some fog noted in NE SD in a narrow zone just east of Aberdeen up to near Britton and satellite showing a possible developing area around Mahnomen. All in all will leave the patchy fog in the fcst thru 14z in E ND and parts of MN as we had it. See no reason to remove it or add to it. For today temperature wise, 850/925 mb temps drop a bit, more so in Minnesota east of the Red River valley. Thus the locations that were upper 40s to low 50s should see their highs around 5 degrees cooler today. For the Red River valley and E ND 1-3 degree cooling is about it. Tonight will be clear but there will be a southeast light wind 5 kts or so. This should keep fog chances at bay. Temperatures will once again be variable but mostly lower 20s...though higher terrain wester side of the RRV in NE ND will start seeing warmer 925 mb temps move in overnight and could see rising temps in places such as Walhalla. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019 Mild on Saturday with increase in high cloud cover. Significant warming at the 925/850 mb layer should result in the warmest temps of the month so far with highs even in the coolest snow cover areas around 40 with likely mid 50s Bemidji/Park Rapids/Lake Itasca and other locations in the pine trees. A weekend cold front will interrupt our warming trend and bring light precipitation chances to the region Saturday night into SUnday. While a return to a warming pattern with favorable snow melt conditions is expected for the first half of the upcoming work week, there are hints that rain/snow chances could return towards the tail end of the week. Saturday night through Sunday night... Medium and long range guidance are in fairly good agreement that the current high amplitude ridging regime over the central CONUS will break down heading into the weekend as a southward push of an arctic airmass helps deepen a Hudson Bay upper level low by Saturday. At the surface, this will be manifest as a cold front pushing southward out of the Canadian prairies and into the northern Plains Sunday morning. Light precipitation is expected as this front moves southward, with a variety of precipitation types possible. With low level temperatures above freezing ahead of the front, rain will be the most likely P-type initially. A transition to mostly sleet and snow is likely as the cold front pushes southward and low level temperatures fall below freezing. A few forecast soundings do suggest the potential for freezing rain and freezing drizzle Sunday morning and early Sunday afternoon. However, there appears to be only a brief window during the transition between rain to sleet/snow when freezing rain is possible. Additionally, overall low QPF amounts and low level drying by Sunday afternoon will act to limit the potential impacts from these P-types. That being said, pockets of freezing rain/drizzle can't be ruled out during the day Sunday. This push of cold air will cut down on daytime highs for Sunday, but most locations are still expected to reach near or above freezing by late Sunday afternoon as clouds begin to decrease from north to south. Monday through Wednesday... Surface high pressure will linger over the region for Monday before slowly drifting eastward into the Great Lakes region by Tuesday. As this occurs winds will become more southerly and usher in a return to warmer temperatures and favorable snow melt conditions. Afternoon highs in the mid 30s for Monday will warm into the 40s for Tuesday and Wednesday. A few locations across north west Minnesota, particularly heavily forested areas, could see Wednesday's highs return to the low 50s. Thursday... Recent model guidance supports the idea that a return to a more zonal to southwesterly flow regime over the CONUS is likely by the end of the upcoming work week. This flow regime typically allows for upper level waves to bring more substantial rain chances to the region, and all 00Z long range deterministic guidance shows some sort of system moving through the Plains during the late week period. However, overall guidance consensus, including ensemble guidance, is low and gives low confidence in rain/snow chances for this period. The main takeaway for now is that a return to an active pattern is possible as we head into the end of March/early April. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019 The couple patches of fog have remained away from the TAF sites and thus for the TAF sites kept P6SM and SKC thru 12z Saturday. But thru 14Z or so will have to watch for fog from KDTL to K3N8 to KFSE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...Riddle LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...Riddle