591 FXUS65 KPUB 221209 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 609 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 600 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2019 Updated to expire the winter weather advisories for the lower elevations of the San Juan Range and the La Garita mountains. The winter storm warning for the higher elevations of the San Juans continues. Periods of light to moderate snow will continue through this afternoon with minor snow accumulations expected. No other changes to the forecast at this time. Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 421 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2019 ...Thunderstorms possible this afternoon over the Plains... Currently...upper system is taking shape over northeastern Arizona early this morning, with snow spreading northward along the Continental Divide. Satellite and radar imagery also showing light rain moving north out of New Mexico into our eastern Plains early this morning. Temperatures are mild across the region with mid 30s to lower 40s with generally light winds. Today...the primary concerns for today with be snowfall along the Continental Divide and thunderstorms over the Plains. As for snowfall, periods of moderate to heavy snow are expected through the morning hours as the upper system moves east across northern New Mexico. The heaviest snow is expected over the San Juan Range where an additional 2 to 5 inches are possible through the afternoon. Elsewhere, snow will be possible into the afternoon hours, with a couple of additional inches of accumulation expected. There is the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the Plains from late morning through the afternoon. Models in general agreement with thunderstorms developing around 18z over the southern I-25 corridor, and spreading east through the afternoon. Initial development will be isolated, but should increase in coverage as the surface low develops across the Plains. A dryline is expected with modest moisture return ahead of the feature. Dewpoints in the lower to mid 40s should lead to CAPE values around 600 to 800 J/kg across the Plains. Shear values will also be moderate, with decent low level helicity values. This should allow a couple of cells to rotate out east with marginally severe hail possible along with lightning and locally heavy rainfall with stronger storms. Overall, not anticipating any severe storms, but this will be monitored. Expect thunderstorms to shift east towards the Kansas border by late afternoon as the surface low lifts northeast from near Trinidad to La Junta. Temperatures will be mild across the region with 50s to lower 60s expected across the Plains. Tonight...the upper level system will slowly lift northeast into western Kansas by Saturday morning. Thunderstorms across the Plains should shift east during the evening hours, clearing our area by 8 to 9 pm. Models in decent agreement with wrap around precipitation dropping south around the upper low across the Palmer Divide overnight, spreading east across the northern half of our Plains. Light snow will be possible over the Palmer Divide where an inch or two of snow is expected, mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces. Further east, and generally north of highway 50, rain is expected, and south of highway 50 should remain dry. Slight changes in storm track and speed may allow for precipitation to be further south, but at this time it should stay north. Showers will likely continue over the mountain areas through the overnight hours. Not anticipating much in the way of additional accumulations with an inch or two possible, especially over the Central Mountains. Mozley .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 421 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2019 Saturday...GFS, EC and now the NAM all agree on placing the upper low over the eastern border of CO Sat morning, with wraparound moisture streaming across the eastern Plains and northerly winds gusting to 30-35 mph. The system will quickly move to the northeast into KS through the morning, and by the late aftn pcpn is expected to shut down across much of the forecast area though there will be some lingering showers along the Continental Divide. Look for highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the Plains. Sunday...Another quick-moving upper disturbance will cross the region on Sunday, bringing 2 to 4 inches of snow to the higher peaks of the mts through the day, and showers to the Plains during the aftn and eve. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 40s to lower 50s for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the Plains. Monday through Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure moves into the Four Corners region for the start of the work week, bringing dry conditions and warming temps through Wed. Increasing southwest winds aloft and at the surface will help to push temps on Tue and especially Wed to above-normal levels, and Wed may flirt with near- critical fire weather conditions. For the high valleys, expect highs in the 50s on Mon, then mid 50s to around 60F for Tue and Wed. Things will get a bit more toasty across the Plains with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s for Mon, mid 60s to lower 70s for Tue, then upper 60s to upper 70s for Wed. Thursday...Long range models indicate another upper disturbance crossing the area on Thu, bringing a chance of snow to the mts and rain showers for the Plains, and knocking about 10 degrees off the high temp readings. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 421 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2019 KALS...southerly winds will shift westerly and southwesterly overnight. A few light rain or snow showers are possible through this morning. Generally VFR CIGS are expected through the next 24 hours, with brief periods of lowered CIGS this morning due to showers in the area. KCOS and KPUB...expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage through the morning hours, with thunderstorms expected through the afternoon. Reduce CIGS and VIS are expected as they pass across the terminals. Thunderstorms should move east of KPUB by this evening. Wrap around rain or snow may be possible at KCOS through the overnight hours. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ068. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MOZLEY