651 
FXUS63 KOAX 221123
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

A mid-level trough --comprised of several embedded vorticity
maxima-- over the Great Basin into lower CO Valley early this
morning will consolidate into a closed mid and upper-level cyclone
over the central High Plains by Saturday morning. Ahead of that
system, a plume of high-level moisture will overspread the region
today in the form of cirrus clouds with highs ranging from the 
mid 50s in the north to around 60 or the lower 60s along the KS 
border.

Tonight into Saturday, the aforementioned upper low will advance
across NE and KS with an associated warm-conveyor band of showers
overspreading our area from west to east, mainly after 7 AM 
Saturday. The widespread clouds and precipitation will likely hold
temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s on Saturday.

On Saturday night into Sunday, the upper low is forecast to weaken
and evolve into an open wave as it translates east into IA. Cold
mid-level temperatures coincident with the upper low will
contribute to steepening lapse rates with the potential for an arc
of more robust convection including a few thunderstorms developing
ahead of the deep-layer cyclone on Saturday night. The most 
probable location of that convection and associated higher- 
precipitation amounts will be generally along and south of I-80 
where we will indicate storm-total rainfall amounts of 0.4"-0.6". 
Given the anticipated convective character of the precipitation, 
locally higher rainfall amounts are likely. Any flooding threat 
(outside of that ongoing along the MO River) will be contingent on
which basins are impacted by any swaths of higher rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Latest medium-range guidance is suggestive that mid-level heights
will build across the Great Plains during the early to middle 
part of the upcoming week, ahead of another trough evolving over 
the West. That pattern evolution would yield warmer temperatures,
and generally dry conditions; at least into Tuesday night. By 
next Wednesday or Thursday, there is a signal in model data that 
a short-wave trough emerging from the Rockies will interact with 
a cold front to support an increasing chance of showers and 
thunderstorms. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

All TAF sites should expect VRF conditions and light winds through
the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...HB