281 FXUS63 KIND 221021 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 621 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 West-Northwest flow across the region as low pressure continues to move off to the northeast over the lower Great Lakes. High pressure is moving into the region from the west which will keep skies mostly clear today through tonight. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 High pressure is building into the region from the west and northwest and has efficiently cleared the clouds out of the region this morning. There was a 70 kt mid level jet extending southward over MN last evening and that could move around a weak trough through northern IL and northern Indiana which would effectively bring some cloud cover across the northern half of central Indiana this afternoon. Thus, have kept temperatures cooler in the northern half /low-mid 40s/, and have upper 40s maybe low 50s south where there will be a bit more sunshine today. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday/... Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 High pressure will move over the area Saturday. On Sunday, the model blend brings a low eastward from the Missouri Valley eastward through central Indiana. the models indicate strong forcing ahead of the mid level short wave trough associated with this low pressure system. Models indicate the timing of the rain showers could enter western parts of central Indiana early Sunday morning, but given that there will need to be some evaporative cooling to cool the air mass for rain, there is a little more confidence that rainshowers will begin more towards the late morning hours on Sunday, then continue through the day Sunday and more definitely Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Given the forcing with this system, looks like there will be periods of more moderate rains Sunday evening into Monday morning. Much of central Indiana will just get into the warm sector raising temperatures into the low-mid 50s, but feel we will lack in instability to produce any thunder with this system late Sunday. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 An upper disturbance will be pushing through central Indiana at the beginning of the long term period. Rain chances will quickly move off to the east during the day on Monday as the surface system associated with the wave quickly rushes out to the east coast. The pressure gradient during this time and northwesterly winds in the boundary layer could bring in some gusty winds during the day on Monday. High pressure will then begin to build into the area in the wake of the aforementioned system. This will bring dry conditions but colder air for Monday night, and these below normal temperatures will continue into Wednesday. The next system to impact the area will be arriving somewhere between late Wednesday night and Thursday night, but it seems the majority of solutions currently favor Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Thus kept initialization low PoPs for Thursday afternoon in the northwest and higher PoPs not until Thursday night. At this point does not appear that instability will be available during the long term so left out any thunder mention. That said, there are some indications of a pretty strong low level jet forming sometime between Thursday and Friday, and with the right placement this could introduce some instability and moisture so will be monitoring going forward. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 221200z TAF issuance/... Issued at 618 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 VFR through the period. Wind gusts will pick up late morning and stay around 20 to 25 kts or so through the rest of the day. Could see few to scattered stratocu for a few hours this afternoon but expect them to remain above 3000 ft. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DM NEAR TERM...DM SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...CP