354 
FXUS64 KLCH 212321
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
621 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

.AVIATION...
Looking at clr skies w/ wnds tapering off thru the eve hrs. VFR to
hold at TAF lctns thru sr.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Another well earned spring day continues this afternoon after
weeks of dreary, overcast skies. A dry column with ridging
building across the region is yielding a completely cloudless sky
areawide. A nearly identical day setting up for our Friday with
abundant sunshine and light northerly winds. 

The surface high will slide off to the east Saturday allowing for
the return of southerly flow and increasing low level moisture.
Scattered to broken cloud cover will develop with a few isolated
showers possible mainly across southeast Texas. The increasing
moisture will limit radiational cooling beginning Saturday night
with forecast lows about 10 degrees warmer than tonight and
tomorrow night. 

A steadily weakening area of low pressure moving across the 
midwest this weekend will swing the next cold front through the 
area during the day Monday. This front will be accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms although there is considerable
divergence with regards to how much instability will be available
for convective activity with the GFS resolving much higher values
than the ECMWF. Should the GFS solution prove more accurate, a few
strong to severe storms could be possible. 

Behind the front, ridging once again builds in across the region
with very pleasant conditions expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Jones

MARINE...
Light offshore flow and low seas will prevail through Friday as
high pressure settles over the region. As this high shifts east,
onshore flow will develop Saturday and Sunday in advance of the
next cold front which will move through the area Monday
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Offshore flow
will become reestablished behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  44  74  46  73 /   0   0   0   0 
LCH  49  76  50  73 /   0   0   0  10 
LFT  48  75  50  74 /   0   0   0   0 
BPT  48  76  52  72 /   0   0   0  20 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...Ozone Action Day from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Friday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...19