568 FXUS62 KMLB 212003 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 403 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 .DISCUSSION... Tonight...Thanks to a high pressure building in from the west into the Florida peninsula, weather conditions will remain fair, with clear skies and no precipitation expected. However, humidities and sea conditions will be the ones to watch for tonight and tomorrow (see Marine section below). Dew points will continue to remain low as dry air filters in from southeast U.S. into our area. For tonight, these will drop to the 40s with temperatures dropping to from the mid 40s to near 50. Friday...Surface high pressure will continue to extend towards the FL peninsula, providing more dry air for east central FL. Relative humidities will drop to below 35 percent in the afternoon and winds will be switching from northwest to west during the day ranging between 5 to 10 mph and no rain expected. Beach conditions are expected to improve but swimmers should continue to use caution if venturing to the water as swells continue to diminish. Fri Night-Mon Night...Generally zonal flow aloft during this period. At the surface, high pressure will move out of the Midwest and toward the mid Atlc coast during the day Sat and emerge into the western Atlc on Sun ahead of an approaching cold front that will venture into the FL Panhandle by Tue morning. The atmosphere will remain very dry with PWATs under one inch areawide until around early Mon morning. Expect a dry WNW/NW flow early Fri evening veering to the N Fri overnight, then NE/E during the day on Sat. ERLY winds continue into early Mon as the pgrad remains weak. Continue to keep conditions dry during this period over land. Max temps near climo Sat with mins below normal Sat morning then near normal Sun morning. Max/min temps return to near climo Sun/Mon. ...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified... Tue-Wed...broad eastern US trough sharpens by early Tue with axis crossing the region late in the day or overnight. Precipitable Water increases to around one inch ahead of cold front which approaches central FL Tue or Tue night. Strong surge of NE flow may set up from offshore the Carolinas to NE FL and gradually drop south into the CWA. Increasing moisture convergence suggests isolated to widely scattered shower chances Tue/Tue night into Wed. Near normal temps Tue, falling below normal Wed in post frontal airmass. Coolest temps likely along the coast north of the Cape as onshore flow across cold shelf waters holds maxs in the upper 60s, ranging to near 70 central areas and mid 70s south half of CWA. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue with northwest to north winds of 5 to 10 kts. && .MARINE... Tonight...Northwest to north winds this evening will increase to 15 to 20 knots and up to 23 knots across the offshore waters east of Volusia and Brevard. This as a low pressure over the mid- Atlantic coast moves towards the northeast, increasing the local pressure gradient. Therefore, the advisory will change to address both winds and seas for tonight as seas build 7 to 9 feet. Fri...Winds will decrease during the day but seas will remain high as swells continue to subside. Therefore, the advisory will be to address hazardous seas for the offshore waters as these range 6 to 8 feet across the offshore waters and 4 to 6 feet for the nearshore waters. Models indicate that combined seas should drop below 7 feet in the afternoon. Fri Night...Light/variable early evening flow will become NWRLY with speeds briefly reaching 10-15 kts as a weak reinforcing trough slides southward across the waters. Seas 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore may subside another 1/2 to 1 ft areawide by daybreak Sat morning. ...Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified... Sat-Tue...high pressure over the OH River valley Sat moves offshore the Carolina coast Sun and further seaward Mon as a low level ridge axis extends to the local waters. The next cold front should move through the waters late Tue. Winds become N/NE 5-10 kt Sat, then veer E overnight and Sun 10-15 kt, becoming light SE Sun night and Mon. Seas subside to 2-3 ft, except up to 4 ft offshore at times into early next week. Remaining dry over the weekend, then isolated showers developing Sun night thru Tue and may become more scattered Tue night in association with the next low pressure system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 49 73 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 51 75 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 51 74 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 50 74 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 50 74 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 50 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 52 75 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 48 74 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .FIRE WEATHER... Fri-Sat...dry W/NW flow will allow min RH to fall to between 25 and 35 percent across interior counties and 35-40 percent across the coastal counties with winds averaging near 10 mph. Continued dry Sat, but as winds veer N/NE during the day, RH recovery will take place slowly across the coastal counties. Inland however, min RH should drop to 25-35 percent once again; perhaps 20-25 percent west of Orlando, with winds near 5 mph. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10 PM EDT this evening for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20- 60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20- 60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ Negron/Sedlock/Johnson