717 FXUS62 KMHX 211938 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 338 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area tonight. Another mainly dry cold front will move through Friday evening. High pressure will then build into the area this weekend. A storm system is expected to impact the region early to mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 925 PM Thu...Widespread low clouds associated with low pressure over southeast Virginia are starting to scour out in response to convective mixing and westerly low level flow. These clouds are forecast to dissipate by 00Z this evening. This evening the axis of a strong mid level trough will pivot through the region after midnight. As this system approaches it will trigger scattered shower activity through about 9Z then dry advection will occur as the flow becomes NW behind a cold front. This will end the shower activity and cause skies to clear before sunrise. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s inland and mid to upper 40s coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Thu...It will become windy Friday afternoon as a cold front approaches late. Skies will start off clear but could see some increase in clouds late afternoon, especially northern locations. Not out of the question that a few showers or sprinkles develop northeast zones late as the front begins to move into the area, but decided to keep the forecast dry for now due to strong downslope flow that will have to be overcome. West winds will gust to 35 mph at times friday afternoon ahead of the front. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 pm Thu...Rising heights aloft and developing mid to upper level downsloping flow will keep deep subsidence and a dry forecast in place Friday night. At the surface, a moisture- starved reinforcing cold front will approach from the northwest, crossing the area in the evening. Breezy conditions will develop behind the front, especially for coastal areas, as winds shift from west to northwest. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s Friday night as low level CAA fills in behind the cold front. Winds are expected to remain elevated enough overnight to preclude any significant frost threat. Saturday and Sunday...Deep layer subsidence prevails Saturday through Sunday - keeping sunny/clear conditions in place. Cool high pressure builds in from the west Saturday, bringing decreasing winds and below normal temps, before passing overhead and offshore Sunday. Many locations away from the immediate coast will see freezing temperatures, or at least frost, Sunday morning given the cool airmass in place and light winds/clear skies/efficient radiation expected. Frost/freeze headlines are likely given that the growing season has begun. Monday through Mid-Week...Unsettled weather is expected early next week, with global guidance in much better agreement than 24 hours ago. In general, an upper trough is expected to dig across the eastern US Monday into Tuesday, developing low pressure across the Midwest and moving it to SC on Tuesday, then off the southeast coast Wednesday. Locally, the cold front associated with this system is the dominate feature for bringing precip, with the greatest shower chances arriving in the warm sector ahead of the front Monday night into Tuesday. The front should move through the area during the day Tuesday, with high pressure building in behind it Wednesday. However, there are indications that low pressure could develop along the front off the coast and move northeast, justifying slight chance PoPs along the immediate coast Wednesday. Temps will be above normal ahead of the cold front, and below normal behind the cold front. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through Friday/... As of 7 PM Thu...Widespread MVFR ceilings occurring across the TAF sites late this afternoon should dissipate or improve to VFR by 00Z this evening. Scattered showers are forecast to develop this evening ahead of a strong mid level trough 0-6Z and could produce brief sub VFR conditions. Dry advection after 6Z will lead to clearing skies behind a cold front late tonight through much of Friday. Winds are expected to become gusty out of the west, especially after 15Z Fri when gusts to 30 kt are expected. Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 315 pm Thu...VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday. A cold front will approach from the west early next week, and increasing moisture ahead of the front will bring the potential for at least periods of flight restrictions beginning Monday morning. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Friday/... As of 925 PM Thu...Gusty winds and elevated seas necessitating long fused Small Craft Advisories will continue through Friday as a series of cold fronts cross the waters. The first front will cross tonight with W flow 15-25 kt becoming NW after midnight. Friday winds will back to W 15-25 kt ahead of an approaching cold front. 7-11 ft seas this evening will subside to 5 to 8 ft Friday. Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 315 pm Thu...A dry cold front will cross the waters later in the day on Friday, bringing a surge of northwest winds Friday night into Saturday. The SCA for the coastal waters remains in effect into Saturday to cover this, and additionally SCAs for the sounds and possibly rivers may be needed as well. Given that the winds are offshore, seas will continue to gradually subside nearshore despite continued breezy conditions, while beyond 10 nm offshore seas will remain around 5-8 ft into the day Saturday. Later Saturday, high pressure crossing the region will bring improving marine conditions, as winds and seas subside through Sunday morning. Then, late Sunday, the high will move offshore and southerly winds will develop, steady increasing through early week ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JME/HSA MARINE...JME/HSA