412 FXUS61 KBTV 210754 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 354 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Mild and cloudy weather is expected today in advance of a late season winter storm on track to affect the area tonight into Saturday morning. This storm will bring rain and wet snow to the valleys and higher elevation heavy snows during the period. Behind this system briefly milder weather returns by Sunday before a strong cold front ushers in much colder air for next Monday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 354 AM EDT Thursday...A mainly uneventful day remains on tap for the area as we remain on the western edge of departing surface ridge to our east and north of developing low pressure across the Carolinas. Expect a broad increase in cloudiness through the day with perhaps a light sprinkle or brief bout of light rain here and there as leading moisture associated with an approaching upper trough streams northward into the area. Highs a tad cooler than yesterday given the abundance of afternoon clouds - ranging mainly through the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 354 AM EDT Thursday...A late season winter storm remains on track for the region tonight into Saturday morning as deepening low pressure lifts from the Delmarva into the NY Bight northeastward into the Gulf of Maine and far eastern New England. Forecast challenges remain in regard to boundary layer thermal profiles, resultant p-type and the evolution of the 850/700 mb height fields as they close off and shift east over time. Did lean toward some of the cooler side of guidance, especially by Friday into Friday night as low pulls off to our east and flow trends gusty northwesterly. That said, this will have all the hallmarks of a typical late winter/early spring system with heaviest snowfall across the higher terrain of the Greens/Adirondacks with considerably less in lower elevations where predominant p-type will be rain or a mix of rain/snow until Friday afternoon/evening. Using a blend of selected guidance and a trend toward heavier QPF in general across northern NY have opted to expand Winter Storm Watches to include the eastern portions of the SLV which agrees well with ensemble plume/WPC guidance. While steadier accumulating snows will arrive at summit levels tonight, the heaviest activity should occur Friday evening into Friday night as the closed mid level lows pull east, the boundary layer cools and backside deformational dynamics pivot into the area. As touched on above, the pressure gradient will tighten considerably during this period and with sensible temperatures cooling into the 20s to around 30 some blowing and drifting snow will be possible, especially in elevated/exposed terrain where gusts over 30 mph should be realized. Latest storm total snowfall output mimicks prior forecasts to a large degree, though heavier totals were expanded into the eastern SLV. This would suggest 24-36 hour amounts will range from sub- advisory/advisory levels in the Champlain and CT River Valleys as well as western Rutland County, VT. Heavier, warning level amounts will be retained across the higher elevations of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks above 1000-1500 feet where summit totals nearing 2 feet will be possible. In the eastern SLV totals to near 1 foot will also be possible. By Saturday occluded surface low will pull fairly quickly eastward with steadier morning snows tapering off by afternoon. It will remain blustery as highs top out in the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure moves into the region as skies clear Saturday night leading to a cold overnight in the teens and low 20s. With the mostly clear skies and brief shift to west- southwest flow, Sunday will see a quick reprieve of cold temperatures as highs bounce back to slightly above seasonal normals. This warm up is short lived as a cold front and an associated round of snow showers moves though the region late Sunday night into Monday and temperatures drop back to 5-10 degrees below normal into the middle of next week. Look for highs early next week in the 20s to low 30s and overnight lows in the teens and single digits. Welcome to spring in the North Country. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the overnight hours and much of Thursday. An approaching storm system will bring MVFR ceilings to southern terminals after 20Z Thursday and work northward to the remaining terminals close to 00Z Friday. Precipitation, which looks to be a rain/snow mix will move into KSLK and KRUT right around 00Z and then further north to all other terminals by 04Z. Outlook... Friday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA, Definite SN. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Definite SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN, Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for VTZ003-004-006-016>019. NY...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NYZ029>031-034. Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for NYZ026-027-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Clay/Verasamy