630 FXUS66 KEKA 192233 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 333 PM PDT Tue Mar 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry conditions with the exception of a few isolated showers this evening. More widespread showers are expected overnight and tomorrow morning, with continued scattered showers in places much of the day Wednesday. Widespread moderate rain is expected again Friday into early Saturday, with dry conditions the remainder of the weekend. More rain is likely next week. && .DISCUSSION...A frontal boundary is approaching the area. This may bring a few showers to the inland areas this evening. There is also a slight chance for thunderstorms this evening, but confidence is low on this. Shower coverage will increase later tonight. These showers will continue through the day on Wednesday. Snow levels will remain over 5,000 feet. Rainfall amounts are generally expected to be less than a quarter of an inch. There is an outside chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, but instability looked too weak to add thunder to the forecast. Wednesday night models are now slower with the trough moving through and out of there area. This is a complicated but weak flow pattern. Small shortwaves will moving through the flow will impact when the showers are heavier and lighter and the timing of this is difficult to pin down. Thursday afternoon it looks like there will be some showers, at least over the interior areas. Thursday a brief period of high pressure is expected to build into the area. This should help diminish showers Thursday afternoon. This will be shortlived however, the next system will spread clouds across the area Thursday night brining rain on Friday. The current operational models have the rain coming in fairly early Friday morning, but the general model consensus has it coming in mid morning so confidence is low on the exact timing. Rainfall with this system is expected to range from a half inch to an inch. Snow levels will remain above 4,500 feet with this event as well. Saturday the rain is expected to come to an end as high pressure starts to build into the area. Saturday it looks like showers will redevelop over the interior in the afternoon. The models are showing some instability, but it looks like the better instability is in the morning and will not coincide with the peak heating of the day. Sunday there is better agreement that there will be clear skies and dry conditions across the area. Frost is possible in the morning, although confidence is low on how widespread it will be. Sunday into Monday the next frontal boundary starts to impact the area. The models are still struggling with the exact timing of this front. The operational GFS is one of the fastest solutions bringing rain in Sunday. There is general agreement in the ensembles that something in the neighborhood of 1 to 2 inches is expected with the heaviest rain Monday or Monday night. Currently snow levels are expected to be over 4,500 feet. MKK && .AVIATION...East to southeast winds ahead of the front have lifted ceilings across the area and conditions are VFR. A few showers are possible this evening over the inland areas. Later tonight as this frontal boundary slowly moves north and east showers will spread across the area. This may bring down CIGS and VIS slightly. Confidence is low on the timing of these showers. MKK && .MARINE...A long period westerly swell has been a bit slow to arrive today, but will continue to build through tonight and hold through thursday. Another larger west swell is expected to replace it by Friday afternoon and continue through the weekend. Locally, short period southerly seas are expected to rise tomorrow morning in response to accelerating southerly winds driven by a system moving northward along the coast. More short period southerly seas are expected later in the week as well as another front moves over the region, however confidence on the timing of this is currently low. Relatively calm winds are expected tonight before southerlies accelerate along the coast south of Cape Mendocino as a system moves northward along the coast. These winds will be short-lived but dynamic, accelerating and decelerating quickly as low moves north along the coast. After these calm winds are expected to stay light and southerly before another front approaches the coast on Friday. /TDJ && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ101- 103-104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ455. && $$ Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka http://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png