393 FXUS61 KBGM 191922 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 322 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low passing through the area this afternoon may trigger a few rain and snow showers over central New York. High pressure will build into the area tonight and bring dry and warmer weather for Wednesday. A system developing over the western Great Lakes will bring precipitation starting late Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 8 am update... Update to increase pops and snow amounts as an area of snow showers drops southeast through Ithaca and Cortland on its way to I 88. Webcams showing snow accumulating on the roads. Airport obs reporting vsbys as low as 1/4 mile as the heaviest snow went through. Midday will be a break then more snow showers this afternoon into the evening. previous discussion... A quiet weather period over the near term. Only weather maker will be a short wave passing through in the upper northwest flow. This system will create a bit of extra instability added to the daytime heating bringing a chance of a snow shower, mainly over the northern third of the forecast area. Temperatures aloft support snow but surface temps will push to 40 or more in some places, so the snow showers may mix with rain in the afternoon. If any heavier showers develop it will cool the surface layer enough for snow. Beyond the wave the upper ridge begins to build and a light southwest flow develops. This will bring dry and milder weather into the area for Wednesday. System strengthening over the western Great Lakes will remain west of our area through the near term. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A trough sliding through the Great Lakes will spread rain showers into NY and PA on Thursday, and as the trough advances eastward and nocturnal cooling occurs, the rain will change over to snow showers Thursday night. Energy from the trough will transfer to the coast Friday morning, and a new storm will spin toward New England. A mix of rain and snow showers will continue on Friday with highs in the upper-30s to lower-40s. Cold air behind the storm will push across the lakes Friday night and increase the level of snow shower activity downwind of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Chilly air leftover after the Atlantic storm moves northward will keep temperatures a few degrees below normal on Saturday. A few snow showers or flurries are possible up the lake plain. Milder air under a flattening ridge will return on Sunday and push temperatures to between 50 and 55 degrees under fair skies. Another slug of cold air will dive southward into NY on Monday and set off additional showers. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 130 pm update... Some snow showers over the area this afternoon but not expecting much impact. Possibly a brief reduction to MVFR. Models not keying on any one area for very long. This afternoon ceilings mostly between 4 and 5k ft. This evening becoming clear. Wednesday some high clouds starting to approach. West to northwest winds at 5 to 10 kts this afternoon. Tonight east wind at 5 kts or light and variable. Wednesday south to southwest winds at 5 to 10 kts. Outlook... Wednesday afternoon and evening...VFR. Wednesday overnight through Thursday...Restrictions likely in rain showers as a system enters the region. Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in snow or mixed rain-snow showers on the back side of a system. Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...TAC