210 FXUS64 KLCH 191522 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1022 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019 .DISCUSSION... Wx map shows 1033mb sfc high over the Eastern U.S. this morning, with southwest ridging keeping an easterly flow over the region. Satellite continues to show scattered to broken mid to high layers ~ 15000-25000ft, somewhat persistent with the west southwest flow aloft the last few days. Radars across the region are echo free, with no precipitation expected today. Afternoon highs expected to reach the upper 60s to near 70. Ongoing forecast shows this, with no updates needed at this time. For the marine forecast, the Small Craft Advisory was allowed to expire, with Small Craft Exercise Caution for the 20-60nm zones through 7 PM as east winds 15-20 knots and seas 3-6 feet expected to continue this afternoon. DML && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019/ DISCUSSION... For the 03/19/19 1200 UTC TAF package. AVIATION... VFR will prevail through the period underneath primarily high cloud cover. E/NE SFC winds are expected to remain below 12KT. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 448 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019/ SYNOPSIS... Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows the bulk of the moisture and energy associated with the shortwave over S TX yesterday morning now exiting acrs FL. Meanwhile, another weak vort lobe is depicted upstream crossing from the Big Bend into cntl TX early this morning. This feature is producing nothing more than some high cloudiness acrs TX that are expected to spread into the area later this morning. Skies have been mostly clear tonight, but AC/CI are already beginning to increase over the area. Further to the north, a rather prominent northern stream shortwave trough is digging southward acrs the northern Rockies and the northern plains of the Dakotas into Nebraska. At the sfc, high pres centered over the Ohio Valley was nudging southwestward into the region. Another chilly morning is on tap with temperatures mostly in the 40s, with 50s along the coast. 24 DISCUSSION... Few changes to the fcst as a quiet weather pattern is expected to remain in place through the workweek. Clouds will continue to increase this morning as the weak disturbance over TX moves east acrs the area, but otherwise dry weather is expected. Clouds should begin to scatter out and diminish during the aftn as the subtle trough axis aloft transits east. After another very cool morning, temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 60s/around 70 this aftn. With skies bcmg mostly clear overnight, lows will again be on the chilly side, with temperatures falling into the 40s. The northern stream shortwave will continue diving south acrs the central plains and into the Lower MS Valley Wednesday into Wednesday night, carving a trough over the eastern CONUS, and ushering a cold front into the region. With minimal moisture return and limited forcing, only a slight increase in clouds is expected with the front. Otherwise, the dry pattern over the region will be reinforced as northwesterly flow develops aloft and high pres builds over the region. The front is not expected to bring any notable temperature change either, with overnight lows in the 40s acrs most of the area and aftn highs near 70 Wednesday into Thursday. High pres at the sfc and aloft will prevail through Friday as shortwave ridging translates east between the eastern CONUS trough and an upstream low system taking shape over the western US. Temperatures will begin to creep upward as the weekend approaches and the sfc high moves east. By Friday night into Saturday, flow aloft becomes more southwesterly as the upper low moves into the plains, with moisture and lift increasing over TX. Showers and tstm are expected to develop acrs TX and a few showers could reach western portions of the CWA Saturday morning. This shortwave is expected to weaken and deamplify as it drifts into the plains, and this should confine the best (albeit low) rain chcs to mainly our SE TX counties on Saturday. Rain chcs will increase by Sunday as a stronger shortwave emerges over the southern plains. This system will likely promote development of a sfc low and cold front that will move east acrs the area early next week. 24 MARINE... Modt to strong NE winds will diminish today as high pres builds across the region. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 10 AM for the coastal waters beyond 20 NM, with Exercise Caution expected through the aftn. Light winds are then expected to prevail until passage of another cold front Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will result in a brief period of elevated offshore flow Thursday. High pres will move east of the region Friday, with onshore flow developing and continuing through the weekend. An upper level disturbance will bring the chance of showers and tstms over the weekend. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 67 42 70 44 / 0 0 0 10 LCH 69 44 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 68 43 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 70 48 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ470-472-475. && $$ PUBLIC...08