876 FXUS63 KFGF 190828 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 328 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019 NW flow aloft is still in place over our CWA. One stronger shortwave trough is now passing over ND (currently on subsident side of trough axis), while another is projected to pass east- northeast of our CWA later this afternoon/overnight. Moisture advection will be limited and with forcing even further east confidence isn't high that any thing will measure today/tonight. Periods of non-measurable precip (sprinkles/flurries) can't be ruled out though, especially over north central MN. Early this morning: Dense fog and low stratus has overspread our northwest CWA as mid level cloud cover cleared. This trend is shown to continue by RAP/HRRR with dense fog expected to spread across much of eastern ND and possibly far northwest MN. Guidance is limiting extend along the immediate Red River Valley with better coverage further west. Cavalier is already reporting dense fog and this is further east that guidance has it, so I-29 I was confident enough based on current trends to issue Dense Fog Advisory through 16Z (11AM) for eastern ND counties in our CWA. Will monitor trends if any counties in MN need added. Regarding temperatures: Air mass aloft is a little cooler as a result of passing shortwave trough, but overall we are expecting similar conditions as Monday with daytime highs generally in the middle 30s most locations to lower 40s (in our far east). Breezy conditions possible by late afternoon through tonight (WNW winds 15 to 25 mph) and low levels will be more mixed than previous few nights. Low temperatures may be a little warmer with values in the upper 20s/near 30 overnight tonight. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Quiet and dry weather prevail Wednesday through Friday as ridging takes shape across the region. A general warming trend is in the forecast with widespread upper 30s to middle 40s for daytime highs and 20s for overnight lows. Heading into the weekend, there remains a bit of uncertainty with our next storm system that is expected to bring precipitation chances to the region. Continued southerly flow will keep the warming trend going into Saturday and Sunday with increasing moisture. Currently, there remains a relatively large degree of disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF, mainly regarding the strength of the system and how quickly it moves across the area. Much of the guidance keeps this H5 low to our south, weakening as it moves from west to east in response to somewhat persistent ridging over the eastern CONUS. Currently, we are looking at a chance of light rain Saturday afternoon that will transition to snow during the overnight hours, then back to light rain Sunday morning. QPF values are relatively low at this time, generally less than one tenth of an inch. Following the weekend system, we are looking at a brief return to cooler temperatures as a weak cold front pushes through the area heading into Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 Still high uncertainty in regards to ceilings/visibility in parts of NE ND/NW MN overnight thru Tuesday morning. Increased confidence of some fog into Devils Lake with clearing moving in. More uncertain GFK/TVF. Also areas of MVFR cigs persisting in many areas through late morning Tuesday before clearing works southeast. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026-054. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NDZ027>030- 038-039-049-052-053. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJR LONG TERM...Lynch AVIATION...Riddle