948 FXUS63 KICT 190750 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 250 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Large-scale forcing for ascent will overspread the Central Plains states today as a shortwave trough over the Northern Plains digs southward toward the area. Light rain showers are expected to develop within the mid-lvl frontal zone which will propagate across the area this afternoon and tonight before increasing large-scale forcing for subsidence arrives in the wake of the trough. Ahead of the cold front, breezy southwest winds and the potential for deeper vertical mixing could raise some fire weather concerns briefly before showers increase with the fropa during the mid-late afternoon hours. Wed-Thu...breezy post-frontal winds should subside early in the period on Wed as the H85 CAA is progged to subside early in the day with seasonable highs expected once again. With plenty of insolation, afternoon temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 50s/around 60. A trailing shortwave trough will drive another weak frontal boundary across the area on Wed night although the bulk of the low level CAA will be directed east of the forecast area with afternoon high temperatures expected to approach 60 once again. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019 A mean mid/upper trough is progged to reside across the Central Great Basin/Rockies at the start of the period while a series of shortwave troughs rotate through bringing unsettled weather to the Central Plains states. We're expecting temperatures to remain fairly mild and seasonable with multiple opportunities for wetting rain through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, but cigs are expected to lower overnight into early on Tue, as a weak area of low pressure and a cold front move across the area. This weak system may lead to some scattered light rain showers across the area, so will go with either a VCSH or prevailing -RA for most of the central and south central KS tafs for portions of the daytime hours on Tue. As the cold front moves SE for Tue afternoon, could see some post frontal MVFR cigs develop across portions of central KS for the KSLN and KRSL TAF sites. Ketcham && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Above normal temperatures and breezy southwest winds will support a transient period of very high grassland fire danger this afternoon across portions of south central and southeast Kansas, before rain chances increase during the afternoon/evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 63 37 61 34 / 50 40 10 0 Hutchinson 56 34 60 32 / 50 20 0 0 Newton 57 36 59 33 / 70 30 0 0 ElDorado 62 39 59 33 / 50 50 10 0 Winfield-KWLD 65 39 59 34 / 50 60 10 0 Russell 51 30 60 31 / 40 10 0 0 Great Bend 53 31 60 31 / 30 10 0 0 Salina 53 34 60 31 / 60 10 0 0 McPherson 55 34 60 32 / 60 20 0 0 Coffeyville 68 42 59 35 / 50 60 10 0 Chanute 65 40 59 34 / 60 70 10 0 Iola 64 40 59 34 / 60 70 10 0 Parsons-KPPF 67 41 58 34 / 50 70 10 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MWM LONG TERM...MWM AVIATION...Ketcham FIRE WEATHER...MWM