531 FXUS63 KGID 190544 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1244 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 Model soundings indicate a waning chance of snow as profiles look too warm to support it for most areas, besides perhaps areas north of the tri-cities, and even there, it looks dicey on how much snow we can actually get. Slashed snow amounts for tonight, and essentially have nothing more than a trace in the forecast for the tri-cities and south. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WELCOME NEWS FOR CONTINUED RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM THE FLOODING. UPPER AIR OBS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, WITH OUR NEXT FEATURE OF INTERESTED OFF TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE MT/ND/CANADA BORDER. IF IT HADN'T BEEN FOR THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, SKIES WOULD HAVE BEEN PRETTY CLEAR. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NE THROUGH IL. HASN'T BEEN ANY SURPRISES WITH TEMPERATURES, WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S TO NEAR 50. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD COMES LATER THIS EVENING AND ON THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, FROM THAT ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF TO THE NORTH. MODELS AREN'T IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIFT WILL BE RAMPING UP ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP COMING MAINLY IN THE 06Z-18Z TIME FRAME. DID ADJUST TIMING OF POPS A BIT, KEPT THE 00-03Z PERIOD DRY, BUT IT MAY EVEN END UP BEING CLOSER TO/AFTER 06Z BEFORE THINGS DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. MODELS ARE A LITTLE ALL OVER THE PLACE, SOME SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING ACROSS NORTHER, A FEW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST DOES KEEP AREAS NORTH OF I-80 POTENTIALLY SEEING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW, DROPPING OFF SOUTH OF THERE TO THE NE/KS STATE LINE. NOT THAT ANY QPF IS WELCOME AT THIS POINT, BUT FORECAST LIQUID AMOUNTS AREN'T TOO HIGH, ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND 0.25". FROM 12-18Z TOMORROW, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF HWY 281, THEN PUSHING FURTHER EAST WITH TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CURRENTLY THINKING THAT BY MID-EVENING WE SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. OTHERWISE, AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS KS LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW, WHICH WILL USHER IN A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A SWITCH TO NNWRLY WINDS. NOT EXPECTING A BIG CHANGE IN TEMPS, WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE/LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK, THE FORECAST IS DRY (SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY). IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT/TOMORROW, MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...AND EVENTUALLY SLIDING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE PRETTY PLEASANT DAYS, PLENTY OF SUN AND HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S/LOWER 60S. FRIDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN, AS MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MOVING THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIP DEVELOPING IN THE AREA OF INCREASED LIED AHEAD OF THE LOW INCHES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT OUR CWA ON FRIDAY, OR IF IT ENDS UP BEING ON THE SLOWER SIDE. CURRENTLY, THERE IS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20 POPS IN THE FAR WEST...BUT HONESTLY COULD SEE THIS GETTING PULLED AND THINGS COME IN SLOWER. FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN BE SHIFTING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO THE REGION. HAVE PLENTY OF PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT-SUN. AT THIS POINT IT'S LOOKING LIKE A LIQUID EVENT, MAY EVEN HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. LOT OF THINGS TO IRON OUT. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Significant Wx: Conds lower to MVFR/IFR toward dawn. Rest of tonight: VFR with -RA gradually developing/expanding. As precip becomes better organized...CIGs should decay to MVFR and eventually IFR. -RA could mix with -SN but confidence is low as temps are marginal between RA/SN. Lgt SE winds become E. Overall Confidence: Medium Tue: IFR thru midday in -RA which could be mixed with -SN at times before 15Z. RA/SN should end by 18Z but a leftover -SHRA can't be ruled out in the afternoon. CIGs should eventually improve to MVFR. Lgt E winds become NE and then N. Confidence: Medium Tue Eve: MVFR becoming VFR. NW winds around 10 kt. Confidence: Medium && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Heinlein SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...ADP AVIATION...Kelley