932 FXUS63 KGLD 190029 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 629 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019 Conditions across the region this afternoon have a partly to sunny mix at times as a veil of high cloud continues to stream SE thru the area ahead of an approaching upper trough. Surface high pressure allowing for temps to climb so far into the 40s...on southeast flow...gusting at times up to 15-25 mph. The main weather focus in the short term will be on the aforementioned trough...which currently resides over the northern Plains. 500/700 mb trough will swing across the CWA in tandem with building surface/850 mb trough/front overnight before pulling east of the area going into the Tuesday morning hours. S/SE flow from the surface to 850 mb does not tap into decent QPF until system works into central KS...but up to 0.10" is possible especially east of Highway 25. This will be aided by a weak upslope component after 06z Tuesday. Temp profiles still suggest most of the QPF will fall as showers before a transition to light snow showers before tapering off. Overall snow totals will range a half inch or less at best. Colder air does not work into best remaining moisture until before system exits. By midday Tuesday...expecting low complex(surface thru 500 mb) to have shifted well south and east of the CWA...allowing for surface high pressure to begin nosing off the Rockies into the Plains region...ahead of a building 500 mb ridge for the midweek timeframe. Overall...dry conditions expected from midday Tuesday onward. There is the outside chance for some fog to develop along extreme S/SW portions of the CWA for the 06z-14z Wednesday timeframe. This will be when the surface ridge axis noses far enough into the southern CWA allowing for a brief E/SE flow closest to the remnants of the aforementioned surface trough/boundary. Have left out for now as better moisture looks to be just south of these areas but may have to be monitored for some possible. There will be several potential hours of a strong northerly gradient in the wake of the exiting system where most locales could see gusts into the 30-35 mph range. For temps...upper 20s to mid 30s tonight will give way to highs on Tuesday in the upper 40s to low 50s. Even warmer conditions on Wednesday with high pressure building over the region with highs in the 55-60F range. Overnight lows Tuesday/Wednesday nights will range mainly in the mid to upper 20s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 248 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019 Split flow aloft is set up across the central and western U.S. with a closed low over the Intermountain West and a ridge over the central U.S. Thursday. The negatively-tilted closed low begins to moves across the central Plains Friday night. There are many disagreements between models regarding the movement of upper level flow this coming weekend. The ECMWF has a stronger trough than the GFS building in behind the closed low Saturday. The GFS lifts the closed low almost directly north, as well as the trough building behind the closed low. The trough behind the low and the closed low rejoin the main flow over central Canada. This creates one trough that digs southeastward into the Midwest while skimming the central Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. The ECMWF has the low moving northeast across Kansas Saturday keeping troughing further south into the central Plains as the trough building behind the low extends southward. A ridge begins to move and build over the central U.S. by Monday night. High temperatures will range from the 40s to mid-60s, with a general warming trend, while lows in the 30s and 40s are expected. Thunderstorms and rain showers are possible Thursday night through Monday. The most widespread chances are expected late Thursday night through Saturday night as well as Sunday evening. Light snow mixed with rain cannot be ruled out at times early Friday and Saturday mornings when temperatures drop to their lowest in eastern Colorado. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 625 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019 MVFR conditions associated with showers will be possible between 03-09Z this evening/tonight as a weak low pressure system tracks eastward from southeast Colorado into southern Kansas. SE-ESE winds at 10-15 knots will become variable after midnight, then shift to the NNW and increase to 15-25 knots between 09-14Z (earlier/stronger at GLD, later/weaker at MCK). A NNW breeze will persist through the day Tuesday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...NEWMAN AVIATION...VINCENT