153 FXUS63 KFGF 181842 AAC AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 142 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 Adjusted max temperatures for this afternoon based on local radiative effects. Cloud cover and early morning fog have limited daytime heating at some locations in west central MN, and per usual for this time of year, morning sunshine allowed for areas in the trees to warm considerably today,reaching the 40s already. UPDATE Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 Updated Aviation discussion for 18z TAF issuance. UPDATE Issued at 1018 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 Trimmed some counties out of the Dense Fog Advisory as GOES 16 shows coverage of dense fog gradually dissipating late this morning. Will likely allow the rest of the Advisory area to expire as forecast. The latest radar imagery shows returns approaching the Canadian/ND border late this morning with light snow being pretty isolated in coverage. Expect isolated to scattered light snow and flurries to build into the northern valley early this afternoon as mid level gradually saturate. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 Patchy dense fog remains mainly east of the Red River this morning. Visibilities have dropped to one quarter mile or less at several observation sites although coverage seems patchy. Areas around Devils Lake have seen occasional reductions to around 1.5 miles. A shortwave will traverse the region today, bringing a chance of light snow and flurries to the area this afternoon. QPF amounts are quite light among the mesoscale and medium range guidance thus we will not see significant accumulations with todays system. Accumulations will be limited, ranging from a dusting to one quarter inch with the highest amounts possible in the Devils Lake Basin. High temperatures today will climb into the middle 30s across much of the CWA with upper 30s for our eastern counties. Quiet weather prevails through the overnight hours into early Tuesday with low temperatures falling into the lower to middle 20s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 Mid/upper level shortwave trough will be moving south Tuesday morning, while another mid level shortwave (much weaker) passes northeast of our CWA late Tuesday afternoon/evening. An associated weak cold front Tuesday night might bring a period of breezy conditions Tuesday night/Wed morning. Dry air mass in place aloft will limit precip potential with these systems. Between these there is enough of a temp recovery with low level westerly flow to support highs above freezing Tuesday. Wednesday-Friday: Large scale mid/upper level ridge builds over the Northern Plains through these periods, with large scale subsidence and deep dry air mass supporting dry conditions. Rising heights and eventually SW low level flow (Friday) will moderate air mass and we are expecting warming trend to eventually bring highs in the 40s to almost all of our CWA. As usual, warmest temps (possibly as warm as 50 Friday) would be in our far east where forests are. Nighttime lows will still fall below freezing (20s) and this sets the stage for ideal (gradual) melt conditions. Due to daytime melting, low level moisture should be available locally. Depending on nighttime mixing, fog/stratus could occur each night/morning. Saturday-Monday: Significantly less certainty in these periods as upper low is advertised to move out the the Four Corners region across Colorado and towards the Northern Plains. Significant spread and uncertainty on how far north this system makes it and it's track, and thus any impacts in our CWA. Solutions that favor precipitation in our CWA show southerly flow and WAA with deep moisture which could support more of a rain event (mix or snow during nighttime periods?). Other end of the spectrum of guidance would keep drier air aloft as ridge holds stronger, and this would limit measurable potential. Obviously worth monitoring these periods, but not enough confidence or consensus to begin favoring one end of advertised solutions. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 For the majority of the afternoon expect VFR conditions for most of the region. Ceilings lower after 00z tonight to MVFR conditions from north to south. Overnight tonight ceilings will continue to drop to IFR conditions across the CWA and will persist until at least late tomorrow morning. Winds will remain westerly for the rest of the day today into tomorrow morning. Light snow and flurries are possible across the CWA this afternoon and evening but confidence is too low to include at TAF sites at this time. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...BP SHORT TERM...Lynch LONG TERM...DJR AVIATION...BP/Benson