985 
FXUS65 KFGZ 180332
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
832 PM MST Sun Mar 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A weak low pressure system will bring a chance of
showers and even a stray thunderstorm to the Mogollon Rim region
on Monday and Tuesday. Daytime temperatures climbing above
normal. A return to unsettled weather and cooler temperatures is
expected Wednesday through Friday as yet another storm system
crosses the region.

&&

.UPDATE...A round of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
developed today along and south of the Mogollon Rim. A couple
stations in the heart of the Mogollon Rim measured near 0.25" with
lesser amounts elsewhere. Small hail was also reported in the 
Village of Oak Creek. Convection has since dissipated with only 
scattered cloud cover persisting this evening. No major forecast
updates will be needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /255 PM MST/...Diurnal unsettled conditions will
continue through the afternoon and early evening hours, as some
upper level instability, combining with daytime radiative heating
to allow for some showers and thunderstorms over the higher
elevations.

This trend of scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will
continue for the next few days as limited moisture and a diurnal
temperature lapse rate allowing for some instability through
Tuesday. By Wednesday the weak ridge of high pressure will be
ushered out of the area by the next low pressure trough moving
inland off the California Coast.

As the trough moves inland it strengths and becomes a closed low
pressure system, allowing for more residence time over the area.
A second low pressure trough is expected to strengthen the system
as it remains over the area Thursday and Friday. Snow levels
remain high Wednesday ahead of the associated low pressure system
with snow levels around 8000 feet, after the cold front
temperatures should drop to around 6500 feet and creating snow for
much of the mogollon rim and other high elevations in Northern
Arizona Thursday and Friday.

As the system exits the area on Friday a weak induced ridge is
expected to develop ahead of the next, weaker, system that could
impact the area next Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Expect mainly VFR conditions under 
clear to scattered skies for the forecast period. Surface winds 
generally light overnight and becoming S/SW at 5-10 kts after 16Z. 
ISOLD to SCT high-based convection will produce -TSRA/SHRA along and 
south of the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns from 20Z Mon - 02Z Tues. Cigs 5-
8 kft AGL in areas of convection. Aviation discussion not updated 
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect mainly dry and warmer conditions for Monday 
and Tuesday, with isolated high-based convection over higher terrain 
each afternoon. Winds will trend toward south to southwest.

Wednesday through Friday...Low pressure will dominate this period 
with cooler temperatures, southwest winds, and a chance for rain and 
snow showers each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT/Suk
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...NL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff