029 FXUS62 KRAH 180101 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 901 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front will cross central NC Monday morning. The front will reinforce the cool, dry air in place, resulting in a continuation of below normal temps into early to mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Sunday... A weak dry cold front will move across central NC during the early to mid morning hours on Monday. Outside of a brief increase in cloud cover, skies are generally expected to remain mostly clear with a continuation of dry conditions. Low temps Monday morning are expected to generally be in the mid to upper 30s, with a few lower 30s possible ahead of the front where winds go calm. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM Sunday... The clipper system will shift to the east of the area with the associated cold front moving offshore by Monday afternoon. With a deep mix layer and a deep northwesterly flow expect we will see high temps range from the mid 50s NW to the lower to mid 60s SE, using the dry adiabatic method. Quite dry weather is expected to continue Monday night as high pressure builds into the area, with a slackening MSLP gradient by 12Z Tuesday. Thus, with low level thickness values expected to be in the 1290s to 1300 meters expect lows will be the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 PM Sunday... Dry westerly flow, along with cool high pressure will start off the long term period for Tuesday. After waking up with lows around freezing, look for highs to climb into the 50s, remaining several deg below normal. With high pressure overhead and light winds, look for another freeze or near-freeze Tuesday night. Lows in the lower 30s. Fair weather will continue on Wednesday while the high pressure slowly shifts offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. With deep layer flow becoming more S-SWLY, look for temps to gradually rebound. High Wed in the upper 50s, and lows Wed night in mid-upr 30s. On Thursday, a dampening short wave will cross the Carolinas, bringing increasing clouds, but limited rain potential given dry prefrontal westerly flow and limited pre-frontal moisture advection. Thereafter, we'll see a ridge, both sfc and aloft, gradually build across the Carolinas, providing dry and seasonable weather for Friday through Sunday. So unless things change between now and then, next weekend is looking very nice! && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 750 PM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as light and variable winds overnight will become gusty after sunrise up to 15 kts out of the northwest. As a shortwave passes to the north overnight some mid and high clouds could move across the VA border into northern counties but nothing to threaten VFR conditions. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to continue through the upcoming workweek. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/Haines NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...BSD LONG TERM...NP! AVIATION...ELLIS