338 FXUS61 KBGM 171946 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 346 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface trough will drop through the area late tonight into Monday afternoon bringing scattered snow showers and flurries. Dry weather is expected Monday night through Wednesday. The pattern becomes active again during the latter half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Tonight and Monday...A weak mid level wave and associated surface trough is forecast to drop through the area late tonight into Monday. Moisture and lift are marginal but enough for some scattered snow showers and flurries. During max heating Monday afternoon the precipitation cold be a rain/snow shower mix. Any snow accumulations will be less than an inch. For much of the overnight period skies will be mainly clear/partly cloudy across the central/southern forecast area before a system passing to our south and the one mentioned above brings more clouds back into the area. Overnight lows will range in the mid teens to lower 20s. Highs on Monday will range in the mid/upper 30s with the valley areas of northeast Pennsylvania around 40. Monday night...Surface high pressure in the Ohio Valley will build east into the region. Area will be dry with clearing skies but northwest low level flow may bring some flurries to areas southeast of Lake Ontario. Overnight lows will range from the mid teens to lower 20s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 3 pm update... This period quiet for the most part. High pressure over the area Tuesday moves to the east coast Tuesday night then out to see Wednesday. High temperatures Tuesday from the mid 30s to low 40s warm nicely into the 40s Wednesday. This warming due to the strong warm air advection from the southwest. It also brings in moisture as clouds Wednesday and maybe a late day shower in the far northwest from Steuben to Oneida Counties in NY. Lows Tuesday night 15 to 25. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 3 PM update... Wednesday night to Friday will be unsettled with mixed showers. A cold front moves through the area Thursday. This is faster than yesterday's models. Another cold shot may come in Friday. Models dig a deeper upper level trough over the northeast Thursday. At the surface is a cold front Thursday morning. Showers will be a mix with rain in the river valleys and snow at higher elevations. Snow and rain amounts look to be minor. GFS/CanNH is stronger with a second wave dropping through the area Thursday night into Friday. Other models weaker but still have showers going into Friday, and maybe Friday night. Colder air coming in will change rain to all snow late Thursday night into Friday morning. Highs go from 40s Thursday to upper 30s to mid 40s Friday. Lows drop from 30s Wednesday night to around 30 Thursday night. High pressure with dry weather takes control for the weekend. Lows in the 20s. Highs Saturday upper 30s to mid 40s, warm into the 50s Sunday. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Primarily VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Through late afternoon SCT/BKN cumulus clouds around 4K feet then just a period of mid/high clouds through late night. Toward daybreak a weak surface trough dropping north to south across the region will bring ceilings to 4K feet Monday morning with possible MVFR conditions at KSYR/KRME with flurries. Northwest winds at 10 knots gusting to 15-18 knots becoming light and variable this evening. Southwest winds Monday morning at 5-8 knots shifting to the west during the afternoon. Outlook... Monday afternoon...Mostly VFR, but a slight chance of restrictions in snow showers for KITH, KSYR and KRME. Tuesday...VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday night through Friday...Restrictions possible in rain/snow showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...RRM