707 FXUS62 KMHX 171857 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 257 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region tonight. A weak cold front will cross the area on late Monday. High pressure will build in from the northwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Another weak area of low pressure will move near the coast late week followed by high pressure next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 PM Sunday...Winds will become light to calm as high pres moves across. With high clouds sliding offshore expect mainly clear skies. Excellent radiational cooling expected and went toward lower guidance with lower 30s cooler inland spots to upr 30s/lower 40s beaches. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 220 PM Sunday...High pressure will weaken and slide offshore as weak and ill defined cold front moves in from the NW. Moisture remains limited and expect mclr skies early to become PC nrn tier late with far NE sections poss seeing an isold late day shra just ahead of nrn stream short wave. Highs will be near to just slightly below normal with mid/upr 50s nrn cst to 60 to 65 srn sections. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM Sunday...General troughing is expected over the eastern United States for much of the upcoming week. Some chance of rain expected on Thursday. Temperatures will be a bit below normal for the first half of the week then returning to near normal by the end of the week. Monday night through Wednesday...Ensemble means from the GEFS and EPS continue to show the 500 mb height field to be below normal through midweek leading to below normal temperatures and dewpoints for mid March. Expect high temperatures to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with lows mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s for the Monday night through Wednesday period. With very low precipitable water values and little moisture advection into the area, no rain is expected through Wednesday, despite the passage of a weak front on Monday. Wednesday night through Thursday night...The latest medium range guidance continues to show some differences in the handling of a potential coastal low for Thursday as mid-level trough crosses the Deep South. Weak cyclogenesis appears likely but location and timing remain varied from close to the coast, with precip impacting coastal areas by Wednesday night, to farther offshore with little to no impacts. Given low values of precipitable water (mostly less than 0.75") would expect any rainfall to be light with QPF totals of only a few hundreths of an inch. Using a blend of 12Z possible solutions, will have low chance PoPs at the coast late Wednesday night into Thursday night with slight chance elsewhere. Friday and Saturday...Upper level heights start to rise again for the end of the week with surface high pressure re- establishing itself along the Southeast Coast. As a result, expect mild temperatures and dry conditions with highs into the mid/upper 60s Saturday with temps near 70 inland on Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /Through Monday/... As of 1220 PM Sunday...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period as high pres conts to dominate. High clouds will drift E with mainly clr skies expected thru mid day Mon. With light winds tonight temps will approach dewpts and cant rule out some brief shallow fog but confidence too low to add to fcst. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 255 PM Sunday...With high pressure in control, widespread VFR through all terminals through Wednesday night. Best chances for sub-VFR conditions will be Thursday and for the eastern TAF sites of EWN/OAJ, closer to the potential development of a coastal low. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Mon/... As of 220 PM Sunday...NE winds will cont to diminish this evening and become 5 to 15kt overnight as high pres builds across. The high will weaken and drift E Mon as weak cold front reaches area late day. Light winds thru the morn will become N 10 to 15 kt late highest nrn wtrs. Seas of 3 to 5 ft late today will drop to 2 to 4 feet tonight and be mainly 2 to 3 feet Mon. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 255 PM Sunday...Guidance continues to indicate a modest surge behind a weak dry cold front later Monday night into Tuesday. Winds will be N 15-20 knots, but may gust to 25-30 knots during this period with seas up to 4-6 feet for the outer portions of the coastal waters. Winds should subside Weds with NE winds 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet Wednesday night into Thursday. Another mostly dry cold front will cross the waters late Thursday into Friday with NW winds 10-20 kt and seas 2-5 ft on Friday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...DAG/CTC AVIATION...DAG/RF MARINE...DAG/RF