372 FXUS63 KICT 171143 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 643 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019 An area of weak high pressure will remain overhead today as it pushes to the southeast, which will provide another nice day across central, south central, and southeast Kansas. Temperatures will remain near-normal for the time of year and skies will remain mostly clear until late afternoon. An uptick in clouds later in the day, particularly in central Kansas and along the Flint Hills, could limit temperatures from reaching quite as warm as yesterday, but overall values will be fairly similar. Winds will also remain light. Little change is expected to start the work week on Monday, with the exception of increasing atmospheric moisture and thus a few more clouds around during the day than the previous two days as the surface ridge exits to the east. Temperatures will hold in the upper 50s to near 60. The next shot at rain for the area will come on Monday night as an upper disturbance approaches central Kansas during the late evening Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The system will continue to overspread the area during the day on Tuesday, bringing good chances of widespread rain across the forecast area. However, precipitable water and moisture transport do not look overly impressive, so kept the QPF at around a half inch or less across the CWA. As has been discussed for the past several days, a few snowflakes mixed in cannot be completely ruled out, but models continue to suggest a warmer trend, so feel fairly confident at this point that most, if not all, precip will fall as rain. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019 By early Wednesday morning, the last of the rain should be exiting southeast Kansas. Following this disturbance, expect clearing skies throughout the afternoon and light winds. The clear skies will stick around for Thursday as well, which should allow temperatures to heat up into the 60s area-wide. The next system of interest will begin to approach western portions of the CWA on Friday and last through at least the first half of next weekend. As the previous discussion included, models continue to slowly come into better agreement with regards to timing of this system, which has the potential to bring more widespread rainfall across the forecast area throughout the end of the week. Decent low-level instability (1000-700mb MUCAPE) and lapse rates of 7+C/km lend themselves to the possibility of a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening of both Friday and Saturday. However, models are in fairly good agreement that bulk shear will be rather weak and low-level moisture may be limited, which would be the limiting factors with regards to severe weather potential. Overall, still thinking that it does not appear to be a significant severe weather setup, but confidence in widespread rainfall during the end of the week remains high. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019 Light and variable winds will remain light becoming easterly before another subtle cold front shifts winds to the north again tonight. VFR is anticipated through the period although some transient mid-lvl clouds will become increasingly likely as we move through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019 Breezy winds in southeast Kansas could push grassland fire danger index into the very high category for a couple of hours on Tuesday afternoon, but not very concerned given the potential for rainfall in this same area Tuesday-Tuesday night. Otherwise, fire weather concerns will remain low through the next seven days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 62 35 59 39 / 0 10 0 10 Hutchinson 59 33 57 38 / 0 10 10 10 Newton 58 33 57 38 / 0 10 10 10 ElDorado 59 34 58 39 / 0 10 10 10 Winfield-KWLD 62 36 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 Russell 56 29 53 37 / 0 0 10 50 Great Bend 57 31 55 38 / 0 0 10 30 Salina 57 30 55 38 / 0 0 10 40 McPherson 58 32 56 38 / 0 10 10 20 Coffeyville 61 34 60 39 / 0 10 0 0 Chanute 57 32 58 38 / 0 10 0 10 Iola 55 32 57 38 / 0 10 0 10 Parsons-KPPF 60 34 59 39 / 0 10 0 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAV LONG TERM...TAV AVIATION...MWM FIRE WEATHER...TAV