263 
FXUS63 KFGF 171137
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019

NW flow aloft will continue to support fast moving shortwave
troughs/pulses of energy. This will allow for periods of light
precip (mainly non-measurable) through tonight. Weak gradient in 
place due to surface trough and high pressure to our west/south 
support winds generally out of the southwest to west 5 to 15 mph 
through tonight. This does help with moderation of air mass 
despite weak flow, but with stratus and at least some fog linger 
over parts of our CWA, highs are a little uncertain. Still, we 
should see highs in the lower 30s for most locations possibly mid 
to upper 30s where forest/trees are in MN depending on clearing. 

Patchy dense fog can't be ruled out, but insulation/mixing has 
helped improving conditions. Trends no longer support 
widespread/persistent threat (no obs/webcams less than 1sm much 
less 1/2sm), so the Dense Fog Advisory was cancelled. Will still 
need to monitor as low level moisture will likely remain through 
these periods.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019

The extended period remains relatively quiet Tuesday through Friday 
with more uncertainty as we head into next weekend. A general 
warming trend takes shape through the week.

Northwest flow aloft prevails on Tuesday and into Wednesday. A weak 
H5 shortwave will traverse the flow pattern, bringing us a slight 
chance of snow on Monday night and early Tuesday morning. A 
relatively dry air mass will be in place thus we are not expecting 
significant accumulations at this time. High pressure builds into 
the Plains heading into Wednesday, becoming highly amplified on 
Thursday and Friday. Widespread high temperatures in the upper 30s 
to middle 40s are expected Thursday and Friday.

A high degree of uncertainty emerges heading into the weekend as the 
GFS develops a system along the upper axis of the retreating H5 
ridge. There is little to no agreement at this point as the ECMWF 
holds onto the ridge a bit longer across the northern Plains. If the 
system is able to form, we will be looking at another chance for 
mixed precipitation late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019

Pockets of fog and stratus are lingering over portions of
southeast ND and northwest MN. Some locations are reporting VLIFR
vis with pockets of dense fog north of Highway 2 in northwest MN,
but this has remained away from TAF sites. VFR most likely to
remain in place at KFGF and KDVL, with at least MVFR at other
terminals (IFR/LIFR possible at KTVF and KBJI). Expect conditions
to improve by midday, but northwest MN may continue to have MVFR
CIGs linger. There are also areas of flurries/very light snow 
showers moving northwest to southeast through the region, but 
coverage has been low and impacts brief so far. I did carry VCSH 
for the first few hours of the TAF period for KFAR based on 
current radar. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR